5 Bearish and 4 Bullish Factors for Bitcoin (BTC) in September

The world’s leading cryptocurrency has traded in a sideways channel since the early 2024 Bitcoin ETF rally.

Market bulls started it in earnest in October as a result of premature reports that SEC approvals were around the corner.

After that, BTC went from $27,000 on October 14th to an all-time high of almost $74,000 on March 14th. This represented a 170% gain for crypto investors in just five months.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said: “Investors should be cautious of the myriad risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to cryptography.”

The Bitcoin ETF Rally delivered a whopping 415% annualized average ROI. It was far from the first time that the biggest cryptocurrency delivered amazing returns.

Also, it was by far not the most BTC has returned to investors over comparable time periods in previous markets over the past 15 years of its existence as an open source blockchain operating on the Internet.

However, since peaking in March, bitcoin has been trading sideways in a limited channel. So when will April’s supply halving kick in and lead to another rally based on limited BTC inventories?

The market is in different waters, no doubt, with the asset reaching a new ATH ahead of its halving. This has not happened in previous cycles. Regardless, there are signs that this bull has room to run.

But first, here are the headwinds facing the Bitcoin price in September:

1. Government oversupply of $33 billion

According to crypto research firm Kaiko, there is an imminent threat of a $33 billion BTC oversupply because several governments have stockpiles they could offload, in addition to funds recovered from Mt. Gox are being returned to their owners.

History from earlier this year showed us that when authorities and former users of the defunct crypto exchange decide to dispose of their assets, the price of BTC suffers.

2. Bitcoin ETF Paper Hands

Bitcoin purists like Andreas Antonopoulos warned this years ago. Now that Wall Street is interested in the cryptocurrency, its buying and selling pressure is affecting the price.

September is usually a selling month on Wall Street. Since 1950, stocks have returned an average loss of 0.7% to investors, making it the worst month for the asset class.

The sell-off has already begun in the Bitcoin ETF markets, which saw outflows for four consecutive days from August 27 to 30, totaling $454 million, according to data from Farside.

3. Bitcoin Cyclical September Crip

Crypto has been no different than stocks in its short history. Bitcoin has only produced positive returns in September three times in the past decade. This seasonal trend could affect prices this year.

4. The electoral concerns of the USA

This four-year US political cycle usually leaves financial markets uncertain until democracy has prevailed again with another peaceful transition of power and more political certainty. Big money waits to make its moves until after Election Day.

5. Consolidation after half

Markets are right in the time frame following previous halvings, when the price of bitcoin tends to decline before reaching new all-time highs.

Once all the sellers are removed and BTC finds its post-halving bottom, the bulls take over and take it to new heights.

While the bitcoin markets may have rough waters based on the factors mentioned above, here are four long-term BTC price supports for bulls and bears to watch out for:

1. Financial tailwinds for the price of Bitcoin

The Fed is turning to low rates. This is bitcoin’s time to shine.

The US Federal Reserve sets the tone for the global financial economy by adjusting target interest rates for the supply of new dollars through the day loan markets in time with prices and employment.

Now that the Fed has called for rate cuts to support slowing labor markets with post-pandemic inflation, interest rates will start to fall again and prices are likely to start rising.

The way the credit economy works usually causes this wave of price hikes to hit financial markets like the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ first and hardest.

The more liquid the market for a commercial asset and the greater its future growth prospects, the more leverage it tends to move against the benchmark change in interest rates.

This is happening with bitcoin in the big time. For the three previous supply cycles, the new daily emission was halved every four years. A year after the reduction in the middle of 2012, BTC increased by 50,000%. About 18 months after the reduction in mid-2016, it had risen 8,500%.

Fed interest rates were functionally zero percent throughout the bitcoin bull market in the halving after 2012. However, BTC still offered market alpha compared to stocks in the 2016 cycle. The Fed started to raise rates steadily in late 2015, reaching 2.4% in mid-2019.

Bitcoin surged above $64,500 on Sunday, August 25, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Friday that the central bank would soon begin cutting interest rates.

During the week, BTC corrected but found support at $58,000 instead of dropping to $55,000 as it did in the last two major corrections in August and July. This could indicate that the Fed’s pivot is encouraging longer-term touches.

2. Bitcoin goes to Washington

The adoption of BTC by both US political parties is very promising for long-term price support.

As markets grow more confident that the US government uses bitcoin and is willing to support the crypto industry, the risks are more calculated for the rewards of innovating and capitalizing on valuable contributions to the blockchain space .

Crypto expert Andrea Barbon, professor of finance at the Swiss University of St. Gallen recently told Forbes:

“While bitcoin has often been seen as a hedge against economic turbulence, its future performance could hinge on the upcoming US election. So far, Donald Trump has been more supportive of crypto and a return to the House Blanca could lead to regulatory changes that favor digital assets.

But regardless of how Republicans and Democrats share the levers of power this November, crypto companies are starting to wield enormous influence in Washington.

They made the most political donations in 2024, according to a report by Public Citizen, a DC consumer advocacy nonprofit.

3. Bullish Smart Money

Participants who represent the smart money in crypto, for example, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back, are strangely bullish on BTC this cycle.

Saylor recently confirmed in August that he personally owns about $1 billion worth of bitcoins at current market prices.

Adam Back, meanwhile, has a price target of $80,000 BTC in his sights.

Back commented in late August that financial company Cantor Fitzgerald’s $194 price target for MicroStrategy shares implies a BTC price of $80,000.

That would represent a 33% gain for the asset above its long-term support level of $60,000 since March. Why is the smart money betting on more price increases of this magnitude for bitcoin?

Because they believe the securely scarcest cryptocurrency is poised to become a major global reserve for massive public and private treasuries to engage in international trade.

4. BTC bullish technical indicators

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin markets gained momentum last week, with exchanges increasing in volume as touches took the price above $65,000.

This enthusiastic buying following the Fed’s interest rate announcement is an early sign of market demand for the asset as rates fall and prices rise.

Bitcoin and altcoin chart analyst Mister Crypto posted X on Tuesday to over 118,000 followers that he expects to see a huge parabolic move for BTC in the near future.

Highlighting the descending flag pattern on the March-August Bitcoin chart, often a bullish continuation pattern during a broader uptrend, Mister Crypto asked: “Would you believe me if I told you that this #Bitcoin breakout has a target of 93,000 dollars?”

At the beginning of August, the crypto investor said that it is very likely that the price of bitcoin will return to the level of $68,000 in the short term, now that it has crossed $64,000.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored) Binance Free $600 (Exclusive to CryptoPotato): Use this link to register a new account and receive an exclusive welcome offer of $600 to Binance (full details).

2024 LIMITED OFFER on BYDFi Exchange – Up to $2888 Welcome Reward, Use this link to register and open a 100 USDT-M position for free!