Kalshi election betting markets to resume, court rules

After court battles with the CFTC, Kalshi received approval to list contracts predicting which political party would dominate Congress.

Kalshi, the only U.S.-regulated prediction marketplace, can continue to list Congressional event contracts in America, according to an Oct. 2 decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

The startup, which is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has been fighting the CFTC in court since at least last year. Kalshi sued the agency for denying him permission to offer election outcome prediction markets at the time.

According to the CFTC, allowing betting on elections could influence political outcomes and harm the public interest. Last month, a lower court ruled that Kalshi could list markets focused on the U.S. Congress.

Hours after the contracts were filed on September 13, the CFTC issued a moratorium and the exchange was forced to pause Congressional event markets while the CFTC appealed. However, Circuit Judge Patricia Millet terminated the administrative stay and denied the commission’s request, stating that the CFTC could not prove that irreparable harm would be caused to the public without a break.

Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi settles bets in US dollars, but the company participated in crypto-related events earlier this year. As Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said about X after the decision, his victory over the CFTC in the Congressional markets case could also pave the way for presidential election markets.

Meanwhile, rivals like Polymarket are claiming market share in the US election prediction betting scene. Polymarket data was integrated into Bloomberg’s terminal, and bettors placed over $1 billion in bets on who the next American president would be.

Polymarket’s success has encouraged a new group of players to consider the on-chain betting industry. Market maker Wintermute plans to launch its prediction market in collaboration with Chaos Labs.