Uptober postponed? The analyst assesses when Bitcoin will regain its all-time high

Bitcoin broke above $61,400 on Wednesday after suffering a major decline amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, which dampened expectations for an October rally.

Analysts are now suggesting that Bitcoin’s attempt to regain its all-time high near $74,000 could take longer than expected.

October’s Rocky Start for Bitcoin

Prominent Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said that the current structure of the Bitcoin market indicated a medium-term bearishness. However, the long-term outlook remains bearish, but is moving towards a neutral position, with potential for bullish momentum going forward.

In his latest tweet, Woo suggests that the long-awaited all-time high will take longer to arrive, as the current short-term structure advises a 1-3 week cooling off period before the next bullish attempt. Woo even expressed skepticism about a typical “Uptober,” predicting a sideways trend throughout October, followed by a more upbeat November and December.

Despite the near-term challenges, Woo maintains a bullish long-term outlook on Bitcoin, highlighting the asset’s appeal and growth potential as the geopolitical crisis escalates.

Bitcoin: Risky or Risky Asset?

According to a note from Presto Research, yesterday marked the worst start to October for crypto since 2013, as the price of Bitcoin fell significantly following Iran’s attack on Israel. This contrast is interesting, especially since BlackRock has recently touted BTC as a risky asset like gold. The precious metal price fared much better.

The key difference in their short-term movements is attributed to their respective stages of maturity; Gold has a rich 5,000-year history as a store of value, leaving little room for incremental network effects.

On the other hand, Bitcoin, with only 15 years of history, is still in the early stages of widespread adoption, and its narrative is “still poorly understood.”

This provides ample opportunity for significant network effects, according to Presto Research, which makes Bitcoin’s risk profile comparable to that of an Internet startup. As a result, BTC functions as a hybrid of risk assets and risk assets, with the risk characteristics most evident in the short term and the potential for de-risking materializing in the long term.

“A useful reference here is the volatility of gold prices in the 1970s. The reopening of the US gold market in 1974, after the ban on private ownership since 1933, probably increased the volatility of its prices as the market revalued gold in a world of floating exchange rates, inflation and new monetary policies Its volatility finally settled down to a more stable level from the middle of the decade 1980”.

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