Polymarket’s biggest predictions for the next few months

As polymarket traders place big bets on the Trump-Harris election showdown and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, are they predicting a tumultuous year for 2024, or are these bets overly dramatic?

Bets are placed

The popularity of decentralized betting platforms has increased throughout 2024 as more users turn to them for information on future events.

These platforms allow people to predict outcomes in areas such as politics, sports and financial markets, while also providing the incentive to earn rewards for correct predictions.

One platform that has become particularly popular is Polymarket. Polymarket has experienced rapid growth since April 2024 and has become a major target for crypto bettors looking to predict what will happen next across various sectors.

According to Dune Analytics, the platform’s monthly trading volume rose from $39 million in April to an impressive $533 million in September, marking a jaw-dropping increase of over 1,267%.

Polymarket monthly sales volume | Source: Dune Analytics

There are no signs of slowing down in this growth. As of October 3, Polymarket generated over $67 million in volume in the first three days of the month; This indicates that the platform may surpass its September record before the end of the month.

Similarly, the number of active traders on Polymarket has also seen a consistent increase. The platform reached more than 90,000 monthly active investors in September, up from approximately 2,690 in April.

Polymarket monthly active traders | Source: Dune Analytics

Now, as we enter the final quarter of the year, some of the hottest competitions on Polymarket are sparking intense speculation. What do these competitions foresee and how might they shape the future? Let’s dive in to understand where market sentiment is heading.

Presidential race: Polymarket’s biggest contest

Polymarket’s rise to fame can largely be attributed to the excitement surrounding the 2024 US Presidential election.

The platform’s biggest contest, “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” has seen over $1.1 billion in bets since January, and the frenzy is expected to continue until the election is over.

As of October 1, rates are quite tight; Both Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are tied at 49%.

These figures have fluctuated rapidly over the last few months. Trump’s odds rose to 71% after an assassination attempt at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, in July. The incident sparked a wave of support for Trump, but the surge was short-lived.

Her chances have diminished since then, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, making Harris the Democratic frontrunner.

Despite Trump’s strong support for the crypto industry, including launching his own DeFi project World Liberty Financial and proposing a BTC strategic reserve for the US at the BTC Conference, its fortunes have not recovered to previous highs.

While the race remains highly unpredictable, the odds reflect a near deadlock between Harris and Trump, suggesting anything can happen as the election draws closer. The prediction field is divided and the outcome remains up in the air.

Middle East conflict

The Middle East is on the brink of a larger conflict, and the war in Gaza, which has been going on for almost a year, is now attracting powerful regional powers.

Iranian intervention worsened the situation, especially after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27.

The death of Nasrallah, as well as the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Nilforoshan, in the same attack dealt a serious blow to the Iran-backed militias. However, this also paved the way for a harsh retaliation from Iran.

Just a few days after the assassination, on October 1, Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel, firing approximately 180 missiles. This latest conflict, which has hit military bases, schools and civilian areas in Israel, has only increased fears that a much larger regional war may be coming.

Polymarket users reacted quickly to the resulting chaos. Prediction markets evolving with real-time events have shown a change in outlook.

On October 3, the probability of Israel taking military action against Iran by the end of 2024 rose to 93%. This rate increased significantly from 54% on October 1. defensive measures.

But the predictions go deeper than just Iran. Hezbollah’s intervention, especially after Nasrallah’s death, placed Lebanon in the crosshairs.

Because Hezbollah is backed by Iran and well-established in Lebanon, many see Israeli action against Hezbollah as inevitable. Predictions for Polymarket also reflect this sentiment.

The odds of Israeli forces entering Lebanon jumped from 11 percent on September 30 to an overwhelming 100 percent on October 3; This points to growing fears that Israel’s strategy to counter Hezbollah’s influence will lead to a direct conflict in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the possibility of a wider invasion increases by the day. Predictions that Israel would invade Lebanon before November were relatively low in mid-September, at only 10%.

However, by the end of the month, this rate increased to 55% and reached 89% on October 3. This rate has led to speculation that Israel, facing increasing threats from Hezbollah and Iran, will act to provide protection sooner rather than later. neutralizes borders and potential threats.

With each new missile strike, assassination and military action, the likelihood of a wider regional war increases, and Polymarket users are betting that the worst is yet to come.

Inflation and interest rate cuts

Unstable changes are taking place in the global economy, and data from the USA and Europe show that inflation may finally be under control.

Inflation in the United States has played a critical role in shaping the global economic narrative. The consumer price index (CPI) for August was 2.5% annually, the lowest since February 2021 and slightly below the expected 2.6%.

While this headline figure suggests inflation has cooled, a closer look shows core inflation, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month.

In response, the Federal Reserve made a historic move on September 18, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, reducing the range to 4.75-5% and providing much-needed liquidity to the financial system. Investors are now speculating about whether further disruptions are on the horizon.

As the Fed’s forecasts for future interest rate cuts fluctuate, Polymarket users are following these developments closely.

As of October 3, the chance of a 25 basis point cut at the November 2024 meeting is 63%, and the chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is 31%.

For December 2024, the probability of a 25 basis point reduction by the end of the year is 51%, and the probability of a 50 basis point reduction is 39%.

These forecasts suggest that while a 25 basis point cut seems likely, it will depend on how economic data develops in the coming weeks. In such a case, borrowing may become 0.5-1 percent cheaper by the end of the year.

Inflation trends follow a similar course in the Eurozone. Inflation in September fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target at 1.8%, reaching its lowest level in the last three years. Major economies such as Germany and France reported similar declines.

However, core inflation in the Eurozone remained high at 2.7% in September, creating a complex scenario for the ECB.

Polimarket forecasts show that confidence in the ECB’s action is high and the probability of a rate cut at the meeting on October 17 is 94%.

Analysts state that inflation may recover temporarily due to fluctuations in energy prices resulting from ongoing tensions in the Middle East, but the general outlook shows that inflation will remain below the 2% target for the foreseeable future.

This has led many to believe that the ECB will act quickly to prevent inflation from falling too far below target, especially as growth slows across Europe.

Crypto price predictions

The crypto market has been on a roller coaster ride lately, and recent developments are causing even more turbulence.

As of October 3, Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $60,700, down nearly 5% from last week, amid a broader sell-off across the market, largely driven by the escalating Middle East crisis.

This price action reflects a major decline from the all-time high of $73,750 reached in March 2024. Since then, BTC has fallen approximately 18%.

According to Polymarket estimates, there is currently a 48% chance that Bitcoin will reach its all-time high by the end of 2024.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) fell even more sharply. Currently priced at $2,350, ETH has shown greater volatility than Bitcoin, falling 10% in the last seven days.

Even more striking is Ethereum’s sharp decline from its all-time high of $4,890 reached in November 2021. Since then, ETH has fallen by a staggering 51%.

Polymarket predictions do not paint a rosy picture for Ethereum’s near future. The odds of Ethereum reaching its all-time high by the end of 2024 are slim; Only 11% of traders believe the price will rise, while 89% believe it will not reach a new high this year.

These forecasts reflect the sentiment and concerns of a market that is increasingly wary of external factors. For example, the Middle East crisis brought new uncertainties.

While crypto assets like Bitcoin are often viewed as safe havens in times of financial instability, they have proven sensitive to broader economic shifts, especially when tied to critical geopolitical events.

How these dynamics develop in the coming weeks will determine whether these digital assets can turn the tide or whether investors’ cautious predictions will prove correct.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.