Bitcoin price has yet to recover above the key 200-day moving average, and if things stay the same, it looks bound to drop to lower levels.
Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
The daily chart
On the daily chart, the price recently rallied from the $60,000 support level after breaking below $64,000 and the 200-day moving average, located in the same area.
Meanwhile, these levels are currently preventing the price from moving higher, as yesterday’s daily candle shows a clear bearish rejection.
If the cryptocurrency fails to break above the 200-day moving average soon, a decline towards the $56,000 level could be expected in the short term.
Source: TradingView The 4-hour chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart, it looks like things are turning in favor of the sellers.
BTC has been rising within a narrow ascending channel, but broke below the channel yesterday. According to classic price action, a decline towards the $60,000 level and even beyond is highly likely at the moment.
However, with the RSI still around the 50% level, the market could still move up towards the $64,000 level and beyond. However, the chances of this scenario are slim.
Source: TradingView On-Chain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
Bitcoin Miner Reserve
This chart shows the Bitcoin miner reserve metric. It measures the amount of BTC miners have and is an indicator to evaluate their behavior. Increasing values show accumulation, while decreasing values indicate distribution.
As the chart suggests, miners have been selling their coins aggressively since the price broke above the $40,000 level.
With the reserve metric still declining, these investors are still selling at a higher rate than they are accumulating. If nothing changes, this behavior could cause the market to become overwhelmed by excess supply and lead to a more significant downtrend in the coming months.
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