Trump’s lead over Harris up to 15%

Polymarket betting data showed former President Donald Trump’s boasted biggest lead over Kamala Harris since she joined the race.

With the US presidential election less than three weeks away, Polymarket users estimate there is about a 58% chance that Republican candidate Donald Trump will defeat Democratic ticket holder Kamala Harris. Sentiment on the decentralized prediction market recorded a 15 percentage point difference in victory odds; This is the biggest difference between the two leading presidents seen on the platform so far.

As of publication, Harris’ odds of winning the White House had dropped to 43.1%. Polymarket’s “2024 Presidential Election Winner” market has been one of the largest election betting contracts this political cycle. Betting volumes on this outcome approached $2 billion in the weeks before the Nov. 4 election.

Polymarket’s current leader, Donald Trump, received the lion’s share of this volume, exceeding $561 million compared to Harris’ $381 million. Both candidates made policy promises throughout the campaign aimed at currying favor with crypto voters. Trump started the trend during a gala in May, declaring himself the cryptocurrency president and sharing pro-Bitcoin (BTC) rhetoric ever since.

Harris took a more cautious approach, pledging support for “new innovative technologies.” Vice President Harris also released a campaign agenda that will encourage wealth creation for Black male crypto investors. According to Crypto.news, the Harris team said it would support crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks to protect investors and increase access to capital formation services.

Meanwhile, rumors about election contracts continued to reach new heights on platforms such as Polymarket. The Polygon-based venue has been integrated into Bloomberg’s terminal, a first for the crypto-native protocol, and was mentioned by billionaire X owner Elon Musk.

Market rivals like Kalshi have won court approval to list Congressional contracts for U.S. customers, potentially paving the way for bids on presidential ramifications. Projects like Wintermute are also reportedly exploring getting into the on-chain prediction business.