Is Bitcoin warming up for a $100K explosion? Here’s what’s brewing

While Bitcoin is close to $70 thousand, is the next stop $100 thousand? How will US elections, ETF approvals and market sentiment impact the company’s future path?

Bitcoin is Bitcoining

Bitcoin (BTC) has had an impressive bull run, gaining over 2% in the past week as the “Uptober” effect sweeps the crypto market.

As of October 21, BTC is trading at $67,100; This is a level not seen since the end of July and marks a 3-month high. In fact, BTC briefly touched $69,500 before pulling back as the bears stepped in to stop the rise.

BTC 6-month price chart | Source: TradingView

Market sentiment is also changing rapidly. The crypto fear and greed index currently stands at 63, signaling “greed”; It contrasts sharply with the yearly low of 26 on September 7, when fear dominated the market.

Investors seem optimistic, especially as the US presidential elections on November 5th approach. Former President Donald Trump, who has proposed crypto-friendly policies, is gaining momentum in the election polls.

Many believe that his potential earnings will take Bitcoin to new heights as his policies are seen as beneficial for the crypto industry.

So what’s next for BTC? With major economic events on the horizon and a highly active political arena, where might BTC go in the coming days? Let’s find out.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction as positive changes come

In a big win for the Bitcoin market, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are poised to see more action, thanks to a recent rule change by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

On October 18, the SEC approved a new rule allowing the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange to offer options trading for various spot Bitcoin ETFs. This move opens the door to greater liquidity and smoother price movements in the crypto space.

Some big names were affected by this change. NYSE now has the green light to list Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB).

Meanwhile, Cboe Global Markets may list options for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

These developments come just weeks after the SEC gave Nasdaq approval to list BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options.

Options are financial contracts that give investors the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a certain price before a certain date. In this case, the underlying asset is a Bitcoin ETF.

While no launch date has been confirmed for these options, experts believe the approval could have a big impact.

More financial products on major U.S. exchanges mean broader access to crypto, which could appeal to a broader range of participants, from institutional players to day investors.

The timing couldn’t have been better. Bitcoin ETFs have seen an impressive increase in inflows recently. According to data from CoinGlass, spot Bitcoin ETFs received inflows of over $2.13 billion in the week ending October 18, bringing total assets under management to $52 billion.

Last week’s inflows marked the strongest performance for Bitcoin ETFs in nearly seven months and signaled growing investor confidence in the crypto.

Is a breakout imminent?

As Bitcoin flirts towards the $70,000 mark, many experts have shared their insights on social media on where the market could go next.

Bitcoin is the “Boring Zone”

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s current state as the “Boring Zone.” However, this does not indicate bad news.

#Bitcoin currently in the Boring Zone.#Altcoins It is currently reversing and ending the longest bear market in history.

This means it’s time for the Banana Zone, and depending on how long the liquidity lasts, this Banana Zone will be epic. pic.twitter.com/XNNBpvUomr

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 21 October 2024

As Bitcoin entered consolidation around $68,000, altcoins began to show signs of recovery behind the scenes.

According to Van de Poppe, this phase resembles a coiled spring awaiting a liquidity shock. “Altcoins are currently reversing and ending the longest bear market in history,” he explains.

This “Boring Zone” is a crucial period for Bitcoin, where the price remains in a tight range but gains momentum below the surface. Historically, similar phases in Bitcoin’s price movement have led to large upside moves as investors step back when they feel the ground is forming.

Bullish momentum signals are flashing

From a technical perspective, Ali, one of the leading crypto analysts, has turned to a specific metric to gauge Bitcoin’s next move.

The market-to-market value momentum indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s current price to the price at which most BTC was last moved, has been on the rise recently.

When this indicator shows an upward trend, it is often an early sign that further price increases are to come. Essentially, people hold their Bitcoins, believing that the market is poised to move higher; This is an important psychological factor in price movement.

As investors become more confident and hold onto their Bitcoin, selling pressure decreases. With less selling pressure, upside momentum becomes easier to sustain and Bitcoin moves higher.

Increase in open interest

Another important factor is the increase in Bitcoin CME Futures Open Interest, which recently reached an all-time high of $12 billion, as noted by crypto futures expert Maartunn.

Open interest refers to the total number of futures contracts that have not yet been settled. The increase in open interest means more investors are betting on Bitcoin’s future price movement.

The increase in open interest fits into the broader picture of Bitcoin’s current momentum. Investors are expecting an uptick, likely driven by current macroeconomic events.

But there is a problem here: Higher open positions can sometimes lead to increased volatility, especially if a large number of investors are on the same side of both the bullish and bearish trades. If the market moves against these positions, it could trigger liquidations and lead to sudden price fluctuations.

US elections and Fed interest rate cuts

Macroeconomic factors also play a role; The US presidential election on November 5 and the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on November 7 potentially impact Bitcoin’s price action.

Former President Donald Trump, who is ahead in many polls, is seen as crypto-friendly. Trump’s victory could boost Bitcoin’s price as investors gain greater confidence in regulatory clarity and support for the industry.

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins, it will be difficult to predict the market’s reaction. Harris has not made her stance on crypto clear, which could create uncertainty.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. There is currently a 90.5% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on November 7.

A rate cut will provide more liquidity to the economy, which will generally benefit risky assets like Bitcoin. More liquidity means more money flowing into the markets, and Bitcoin can directly benefit from this increased capital.

If both Trump wins and the Fed cuts rates, the combined effect could create a perfect storm for Bitcoin price to rise above $70,000.

Where can Bitcoin go next?

A crypto analyst believes Bitcoin’s next target is $98,000. Popular sentiment in the community is that momentum is steadily increasing and confidence is growing that BTC is ready for the next step.

Meanwhile, according to analysis by famous crypto analyst Rekt Capital, we are currently in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, and the next big stop could be between $90,000 and $160,000.

As Bitcoin gains strength around $70,000, the next logical resistance could be $90,000. However, if Bitcoin surpasses $90,000 with strong momentum, it could quickly accelerate towards $100,000 and beyond.

This is because when Bitcoin enters price discovery (when it begins trading above previous all-time highs), market enthusiasm tends to push prices much higher in a relatively short period of time.

For now, momentum seems to support Bitcoin’s rise. But investors need to be careful and monitor both technical and broader economic indicators to gauge BTC’s next move. As always, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.