Polymarket identifies one trader driving Trump bet activity on platform

Prediction market Polymarket linked a single French trader to a group of accounts betting heavily on Donald Trump’s election odds, amid concerns of potential market manipulation.

Polymarket has identified a French trader as being behind several accounts placing big bets on Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming US presidential election.

According to a report by The New York Times, a spokesperson for the online prediction marketplace confirmed that a trader with “extensive trading experience and financial services background” controlled four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – holding a total of approximately $28. Millions of bets on Trump’s election odds.

While questions have arisen about whether these calculations artificially inflated Trump’s chances, Polymarket reportedly found no evidence of manipulation, emphasizing that the trader had taken a guiding position based solely on personal views about the election.

Polymarket sees surge in big bets ahead of upcoming election

Polymarket also added that it had contacted the trader as part of an investigation carried out in collaboration with external experts, including Nardello & Company, a specialist research firm. The accounts are used to place relatively small bets to accumulate contracts without significantly increasing prices, the company said.

Meanwhile, an unknown trader with the username Ly67890 increased his chances on the market prediction platform by placing a large bet on Kamala Harris. The trader bought $2 million worth of “Yes” shares for the Democratic presidential candidate just 11 days before the US election, according to Polymarket data. Most of the bets were worth less than $1,000, and only six were worth more than $100,000.

As of press time, Trump is ahead with 62.2% support on Polymarket, while Kamala Harris has seen a decline since the beginning of October and currently stands at 38%.