Will November’s Rate Cuts and Election Push BTC Past $100K?

Will Bitcoin’s near 60% rise to dominance translate into a breakout above $100,000 aided by November’s market-shaping events, or will unexpected factors derail BTC’s upward journey?

BTC dominance remains strong amid market shifts

As fall reaches its peak, Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dominance (% of total cryptocurrency market cap) creates an intriguing scenario. Currently, the level of around 59.7%, last reached in April 2021, looks set to cross the 60% threshold.

BTC dominance chart (2021-now) | Source: TradingView

As of October 28, the price of Bitcoin increased by approximately 2.5% in the last 24 hours to $69,000. It is now approaching the $70,000 milestone, a “psychological resistance” level that could shape market sentiment.

BTC 6-month price chart | Source: TradingView

This increase in Bitcoin dominance supports the idea that we are in a “Bitcoin Season.” The Altcoin Season Index, currently at a 25-low, shows that only 25% of the top 100 unstable coins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past three months. On this scale from 1 to 100, a score of 25 or lower indicates Bitcoin Season.

What is particularly interesting is that this increase in Bitcoin’s dominance is aligned with some important upcoming events. First, the US presidential election on November 5 could be monumental for cryptocurrency.

Also, just two days after the election, the Federal Reserve will meet for its next policy review on November 7. Speculators using the CME FedWatch Tool are almost certain of a 25 basis point rate cut with a 97% probability.

With Bitcoin’s dominance heading towards 60% and these major catalysts on the horizon, let’s examine the current pulse of the market and what experts are predicting for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem.

BTC ETFs are approaching major milestones

As November’s calendar is packed with market-changing events, Bitcoin ETFs are approaching a turning point that could further solidify Bitcoin’s position in the financial ecosystem.

As US spot Bitcoin ETFs approach 1 million total BTC holdings, traders are watching for potential headwinds that could push the market higher.

Currently, these ETFs hold approximately 977,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $67.4 billion; This is about 5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap of $1.36 trillion.

Reaching the one million BTC milestone would signal an unprecedented level of institutional participation and could serve as a catalyst for additional price momentum.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci estimates that an inflow of approximately $1.5 billion would allow these funds to acquire the extra 23,000 BTC needed to reach this historic threshold.

That milestone could be reached as early as this week if ETFs maintain average daily inflows of $300 million.

Recent inflows, nearly $3 billion in the last two weeks alone, according to Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani, have led many analysts to predict that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs if this momentum continues into November.

We’ve had $3 billion in net inflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the last two weeks.

If this pace continues until November, ATH will be inevitable

— Alessandro Ottaviani (@AlexOttaBTC) 27 October 2024

Additionally, a possible 25 basis point interest rate cut will be discussed at the Fed’s upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. If this rate cut continues, it could inject fresh liquidity into the market and potentially increase Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.

On the international front, Russia is preparing to lift its ban on Bitcoin mining on November 1. This reflects a broader trend of governments easing crypto restrictions. This could further increase Bitcoin’s appeal and add stability to its network.

All these positive developments could form the basis of Bitcoin’s next big move.

Selection odds and what they mean for the future of Bitcoin

With the US presidential election just days away, the crypto community is assessing the potential impact of each candidate’s victory on Bitcoin.

Republican Donald Trump is ahead with a 66.1% chance of winning, backed by $720.9 million in bets, while Democrat Kamala Harris has a 33.9% chance of winning, with $456.1 million bet on her victory, according to Polymarket, a popular prediction platform. there is a chance.

Similarly, Kalshi’s data puts Trump’s probability at 62% and Harris’ probability at 38%.

But New York Times polling data offers a contrasting view: Harris has a narrow lead nationally, with 49% support compared to Trump’s 48%, according to Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst. This represents its weakest leadership since August.

The race remains extremely close and seven swing situations are likely to tip the balance. Even slight shifts in voting could cause either candidate to sweep these battlegrounds, making the final outcome uncertain.

Trump’s crypto-friendly promises, including his pledge to be the “crypto president,” have raised hopes of positive policies that could encourage Bitcoin investments.

In contrast, a Harris win could cause volatility due to her more cautious stance on digital assets and leave investors uncertain about the regulatory environment.

Since both outcomes are possible, the market appears poised for short-term reactions once the winner is announced.

Crypto and macro perspective

With Bitcoin positioned strongly near $69,000, market observers are talking about its future trajectory, especially with macro events on the horizon.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized that Bitcoin’s current trading range has remained stable for the longest time since 2016 and 2020. He sees this eight-month consolidation as the calm before the storm.

#Bitcoin The range has been in place for eight months.

The longest consolidation period since 2016 and 2020.

I think we’ll leave in the next 2 weeks and we’ll see #Bitcoin Around $90,000-$100,000 around New Year’s.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 27 October 2024

According to Van de Poppe, if the momentum continues, a breakout could push Bitcoin to new highs with a potential price of $90,000 to $100,000 by the end of the year.

One of the important patterns that excites analysts is Bitcoin’s “Cup & Handle” formation over the last 3.5 years.

#Bitcoin

This is what you want to see.$BTC It successfully closed yesterday’s weekly close above the bottom level.

This Cup and Stem has been 3.5 years in the making!

There are US elections next week. Somehow they all fit together perfectly.👀🔥

Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/jcXddRL76N

— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 (@el_crypto_prof) 28 October 2024

Titan of Crypto sees this pattern as a bullish indicator and suggests that Bitcoin could rise to the $110,000 target. He described this installation as a signal of “major progress forward.”

Beyond technical models and price targets, the macroeconomic backdrop can be an important factor determining Bitcoin’s direction.

Van de Poppe suggests that this cycle may deviate from the usual 4-year market rhythm. He argues that Bitcoin’s growth potential may last longer than expected as interest rates fall and governments increase liquidity (China is a prime example).

This ‘Uptober’ and the previous ‘Rektember’ showed that this cycle is more complex and different than previous cycles.

I think this is the cycle where we will get rid of the 4-year cycles.

It all depends on liquidity and interest rates.

If these keep falling and…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 27 October 2024

He adds: “If these [rates] keep falling and governments keep printing money,” Bitcoin’s peak may not be reached until 2026.

However, the bullish feeling also brings necessary warnings.

Bitcoin analyst Ali states that Bitcoin must hold the support level at $65,000 for an upward rally to occur. If realized, it predicts a potential rally to $72,000 followed by a brief pullback before another rally towards $78,000.

In short, while market indicators and the macro outlook support the upward trend, the potential for volatility should not be underestimated, especially with the US elections and upcoming Fed decisions.

One thing to note: Even though the market is trending upward, Bitcoin’s path is never short of surprises. Trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.