How Trump’s Promises Could Influence BTC $250k forecast

While analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $250,000, how could Trump’s promises affect this potential? What should you pay attention to in the coming months?

Trump triumphed

Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, officially winning the 2024 US presidential election as the 47th president. Following a high-energy election night celebration at Mar-a-Lago with guests including Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., digital asset markets rose in response.

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $75,000, reaching a new all-time high, while crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy saw strong gains in the after-hours.

For crypto supporters, Trump’s win marks more than just another GOP presidency; especially since Trump has made bold commitments to protect crypto, a notable departure from the past when Trump’s stance on digital assets was less than welcoming.

Moreover, with Trump’s Republican allies securing the Senate majority, the path is now clear for the policies he hinted at throughout his campaign; policies that could reshape the future of crypto both in the US and globally.

So what promises did he make and what should we expect from his term in office? Let’s find out.

Trump’s promises to the crypto industry Bold vision for national crypto stock

One of Trump’s biggest promises to the crypto world is to create what he calls a “strategic national crypto stock.” Simply put, Trump aims to prevent the government from auctioning off seized Bitcoin instead of holding it as a national asset.

Trump believes that just like countries own gold or oil reserves, the United States should secure some of Bitcoin to protect against future financial uncertainties.

Currently, the US government frequently auctions Bitcoins seized from criminal cases such as the Bitfinex hack, but Trump has suggested halting these sales.

This remark is crucial, considering that the US Marshals Service regularly auctions Bitcoin holdings, sometimes causing temporary market declines. Earlier this year, Germany’s sale of hundreds of millions of dollars of seized Bitcoin caused similar price fluctuations.

Although Trump has not offered a concrete plan for how this reserve will be managed, some see it as a step towards positioning the US as a global crypto leader.

Creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve

One of Trump’s most interesting promises is to create a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” for the United States. His idea is to hold on to Bitcoin seized from criminal activities rather than auction it off, to gradually build up a significant national Bitcoin reserve.

This proposal gained further attention when Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill to create a “Bitcoin strategic reserve” aimed at accumulating one million BTC over five years as a hedge against the national debt.

If realized, this reserve could signal a shift in the US approach to crypto and position Bitcoin as a strategic asset on par with gold or foreign exchange reserves.

Promises to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler “on day one”

Trump has also set his sights on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and has vowed to oust its current chairman, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office.

Appointed by President Joe Biden, Gensler has led an aggressive crackdown on the crypto industry, taking more than 100 enforcement actions against crypto companies for alleged securities violations since taking office.

Gensler’s stance that much of the crypto industry falls under SEC jurisdiction has led to frustration among industry players who argue they need clearer rules rather than constant lawsuits.

But Trump’s promise may not be that easy to fulfill. The president can appoint the SEC chairman, but removing someone requires good cause, such as negligence or inefficiency, due to the SEC’s independent status.

Legal experts warn that removing Gensler on “day one” could lead to a lengthy review, which may not be as quick as Trump suggests.

Still, if Trump manages to appoint a new SEC chairman, this could signal a shift towards more crypto-friendly policies; But it remains unclear how much freedom the new leadership will actually have.

A national push for Bitcoin mining

Another bold promise from Trump is his call to ensure that all remaining Bitcoin is mined in the US. By envisioning Bitcoin mining as “Made in the USA,” it aims to make America a global hub for the industry.

This vision was echoed at a private Mar-a-Lago meeting with key figures in US crypto mining, including executives from major companies such as Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital and Core Scientific.

Trump’s goal dovetails with his broader agenda of “energy dominance” for the United States, which believes Bitcoin mining could increase energy production and reduce dependence on foreign energy sources.

However, the path to this goal is difficult. Bitcoin mining is decentralized in nature and relies on thousands of miners around the world. Centralizing it within a single country would contradict the decentralized ethos on which Bitcoin is built.

Moreover, about 90% of Bitcoin’s total supply has already been mined, leaving only a small but symbolically important portion (about 10%) that Trump hopes to bring under US control.

Halting central bank digital currency development

Trump also vowed to block any progress toward a central bank digital currency in the United States. He clarified his stance, arguing that CBDCs pose a potential threat to financial privacy: “There will never be a CBDC as long as I’m president.”

Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, CBDC will be entirely controlled by the government, potentially allowing comprehensive surveillance of citizens’ transactions.

Trump’s stance is in line with other Republican leaders such as Ron DeSantis, who recently signed a bill in Florida to limit CBDC use in the state.

Opposition to CBDCs is also growing in Congress. Representative Tom Emmer has introduced the CBDC Government Surveillance Prevention Act, which aims to prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDC without congressional approval.

right to self-preservation

Trump also promised to enshrine crypto users’ personal custody rights into federal law, reinforcing the principle that “not your keys, not your coins” should be protected by the US government.

Self-custody allows crypto holders to manage their private keys independently, giving them full control of their digital assets without dependence on third parties such as exchanges.

This pledge is in line with recent legislative efforts by Republican Senator Ted Budd, who introduced the Keep Your Money Act of 2023. The bill aims to protect Americans’ ability to transact with self-hosted crypto wallets and makes it harder for regulators to self-impose restrictions. – custody.

However, the proposal sparked controversy. Critics argue that self-obfuscation can allow bad actors to evade anti-money laundering regulations; This concern is also highlighted by Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2022, which advocates for tighter controls.

While the crypto community largely views self-custody as a fundamental right, questions remain about how such laws might affect the balance between personal freedom and regulatory oversight.

A crypto-friendly advisory council

One of Trump’s more structural promises is to establish a special “crypto advisory council” that would guide his administration’s approach to crypto policy.

The goal of this council will be to create clear, industry-friendly regulations that support crypto growth rather than stifle it.

In Trump’s words, he wants “the rules to be written by people who love your industry, not those who hate it,” and ensures that crypto policies reflect a deep understanding of the industry’s needs and challenges.

Many industry insiders have expressed concern that current regulations lack clarity, making it difficult for companies to operate within legal limits.

However, establishing such a council brings its own challenges, such as ensuring diversity of perspectives and maintaining impartial oversight.

Ross Ulbricht’s sentence commuted

In a more controversial promise, Trump promised to commute the sentence of Silk Road market founder Ross Ulbricht.

Ulbricht, a first-time nonviolent offender, was sentenced to double life imprisonment and 40 years without parole; This was a punishment that many considered excessively harsh. Silk Road, the darknet marketplace he created, facilitated the trade of illicit goods, from drugs to guns, using Bitcoin as its primary currency.

Ulbricht’s case became a rallying point among the crypto and libertarian communities; advocates argue that Ulbricht’s sentence is disproportionate to the nature of his crime.

But critics argue that its involvement in the Silk Road fueled illegal activities and harmed individuals, making tolerance a sensitive issue.

What to expect from Trump’s crypto term?

The latest tweets from crypto analysts reflect the optimistic mood as Trump’s presidency begins.

Michaël van de Poppe, a leading crypto analyst, describes the current state of cryptocurrency as the end of the “longest and heaviest Altcoin bear market.”

He suggests that we are on the verge of a new “Dot.com bubble” in crypto, implying that this cycle “could go much higher than we all expected.”

If this outlook proves correct, Trump’s pro-crypto stance could pave the way for a strong market recovery by benefiting from a more supportive regulatory environment.

Meanwhile, technical analyst Gert van Lagen predicts that Bitcoin is on its “ultimate rise” with a target of $250,000 by February next year.

#Bitcoin – Last Ascension

Taurus wakes up strong and clear,
Two hundred and fifty thousand were expected this year!
Ready to fly from the shadows of the past,
Luck is near and fate is ready.

In August, the 10-2 year yield gap was reversed,
A warning sign that we cannot heed.
For history… pic.twitter.com/4UGeBEl7rE

— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) 6 November 2024

He points to the recent inversion of the 10-2 yield curve, a classic precursor to recessions, as a sign that economic conditions could fuel BTC’s rise.

For now, the industry is watching to see if Trump’s bold promises can translate into action. If it achieves this, the US could emerge as a leader in crypto adoption, creating jobs and financial alternatives that could leave a lasting mark on the entire crypto space.