Unprecedented events surrounding this bull season, such as bitcoin (BTC) reaching an all-time high before the halving, have led traders to believe that the digital asset may follow a pattern not seen in past cycles .
Recently, there has been speculation that BTC could complete its bull run this year or in January 2025. However, some market analysts have stuck to their strategies and insist that bitcoin’s path in this cycle will be similar to the patterns observed during the bull runs in 2016 and 2020.
BTC Top in October 2025
In a tweet, pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital predicted that the best for this bitcoin bull run will come in October 2025. The market participant derived this data from analysis of past cycles that saw BTC it peaked for each bull run for 500 days after each halving. event
Rekt Capital revealed that BTC bottomed 547 days before the middle of 2016 and hit a cycle-high 518 days after the event. The cryptocurrency took the same path in 2020/2021, bottoming 517 days before the halving and riding a bull run 549 days after it ended.
The 2024 halving happened in mid-April and BTC bottomed out 517 days before the event. Analyzing historical patterns, halving acts as a mirror; BTC reaches bear market lows and bull season highs after a similar number of days before and after the event. Therefore, the best of the leading cryptocurrency’s bull run is expected to be seen approximately 549 days after the last halving, around October 2025.
Bull market progress around 50%
Contrary to various opinions that selling BTC at $90,000 is a good idea, Rekt Capital believes that the market still has a long way to go because the asset is in a parabolic phase. Although BTC is seeing some rejection at $90,000, the analyst’s strategy shows that the bull market’s progress is barely 50%. When bitcoin hovered around $84,000 a few days ago, the trader said the progress was 47.8%.
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital believes that BTC could see a few more days of price discovery before experiencing a deeper correction. Historical patterns of the 2017 cycle show that BTC witnessed eight weeks of bullish price discovery before a major correction. 2021 saw a similar pattern, with BTC recovering four weeks after the price discovery before a deep correction.
In this cycle, BTC has only rallied from price discovery for one week. As the asset is in a parabolic phase, Rekt Capital believes there could be a few more days of upside before any major pullback.
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