Will BTC rally to $100,000 first or correct below $80,000?

Bitcoin has surged to a new all-time high, approaching the $90,000 threshold in an impulsive rally. The combination of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the re-election of President Trump has fueled a risk-on sentiment in the markets, driving demand for risky assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin price action reflects a strong shift towards a bullish market structure. It recently crossed the 100-day and 200-day moving averages with significant momentum and reached an ATH of $90,000.

On the other hand, the 100-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA, marking a Golden Cross. This technical indicator indicates bullish dominance, causing FOMO among participants rushing to accumulate Bitcoin.

However, after this sharp rise, the market is expected to enter a corrective pullback phase. For this retracement, Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.5 ($74,000) to 0.618 ($70,000), aligned with Bitcoin’s previous swing high, may serve as critical support zones, providing a target for profit taking and mid-term re-entry. .

Source: TradingView The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains in a bullish price channel, consistently making higher highs and lows, which is characteristic of a healthy uptrend.

The price recently saw a strong rally from the lower limit of the channel near $70,000, fueling the push towards the new $90,000 ATH.

Now that the price has reached the upper limit of the channel, the consolidation is underway. In the short term, a period of distribution near this level is expected, followed by a slight correction towards the middle limit of the channel around $80,000.

Although the current bullish trend is strong, caution against FOMO is advised. The market often offers multiple opportunities for strategic entries, and a healthy correction would provide a more sustainable foundation for future gains.

Source: TradingView chain analysis

By Shayan

Bitcoin’s recent surge to a new all-time high of $90,000 has prompted many market participants to take profits, with miners notably contributing to the selling pressure.

The Miners Position Index (MPI), which measures the selling pressure of miners, has crossed the critical level of 2, marking a yearly high. Values ​​above two usually indicate intensified selling pressure from miners. This increase suggests that miners are offloading a substantial portion of their holdings, likely covering operational costs given the high levels of Bitcoin prices.

Since miners hold a sizable portion of Bitcoin’s supply, their increased selling can intensify the overall selling pressure, especially if it coincides with a reduction in demand. However, in the current context, where market participants have already taken profits at ATH levels, there is a greater risk of price corrections. Without sufficient near-term buying support, the market may experience a deeper pullback as the sell-off continues.

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