Can Bitcoin Return to $100,000 After 8% Weekly Drop?

Bitcoin has been navigating an upward consolidation phase near its critical resistance level of $108,000, and recently experienced a sharp decline.

However, strong support zones suggest potential for a near-term bullish rally.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

Bitcoin has experienced an upward consolidation phase near the $108,000 resistance region, only to face increased selling pressure and distribution activity from major market participants.

This wave of selling led to a significant 15% drop, with the price finding support around $90,000 and the middle limit of a long-standing bullish price channel. These levels represent a critical line of defense against further declines.

A bounce from this support could set the stage for another attempt to regain the $108,000 mark. Conversely, a failure to hold could lead to a deeper correction, with the lower limit of the channel near $75,000 as the next key level of support.

Source: TradingView The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been trending steadily higher in a multi-month bullish channel. The recent rejection of $108,000 led to a sharp decline, sending the price down to the middle boundary of the channel near $95,000, a crucial dynamic support level.

A rebound from this region is expected, allowing the price to stabilize and potentially resume its uptrend. However, concerns about dovish monetary policy by 2025 may amplify selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a bearish breakout.

In this scenario, Bitcoin could face further downside, with $90,000 as an immediate target and $75,000 as long-term support.

Source: TradingView chain analysis

By Shayan

The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR metric provides valuable insight into market behavior and investor sentiment. Between 2022 and mid-2023, the SOPR remained below 1 for an extended period, indicating that long-term holders were selling at losses associated with the market capitulation.

In mid-2023, the SOPR began to trend closer to or above 1, marking the start of a recovery. This shift aligned with a broader market rebound as Bitcoin prices rose, reflecting renewed confidence among investors. The uptrend in SOPR suggested that long-term holders were no longer selling at a loss, a key sign of improving sentiment.

As the market moved into 2024, Bitcoin prices continued to rise and the SOPR remained consistently above 1. This change meant that long-term holders took profits, but selling pressure remained in check.

The stability of the SOPR above 1 highlights sustained confidence among investors, reinforcing that market conditions support continued growth, with potential for further market expansion.

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