Polymarket users forecast PM Trudeau’s resignation by Jan. 10

Polymarket bettors were predicting that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign by the end of the week, but local media outlets believe his exit could come sooner.

Canadian newspapers The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail published reports predicting Trudeau’s resignation between January 6 and January 8, while Polymarket users placed their bets on January 10. Reports indicate that Trudeau has not yet made a final decision on the timing of his departure.

The Toronto Star reported that Trudeau could resign as early as Monday, Jan. 6, objecting to The Globe and Mail’s initial report. According to The Globe and Mail, the Prime Minister is expected to announce his resignation just before the Liberal Party meeting scheduled for Wednesday, January 8.

Trudeau’s resignation will likely happen by the end of the week, according to Polymarket betting odds. The platform’s data showed there was an 82% chance he would resign by Friday, January 10, and a 72% chance of an announcement on January 8. Users were only 26% likely to see January 6 as the lowest date for his resignation.

Polymarket’s interest in political outcomes has skyrocketed over the past year, fueled further by popular conventions tied to the US General Election. Its users correctly predicted that President Donald Trump would win, earning FBI scrutiny of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and a DOJ investigation into suspected U.S. user involvement.

Coplan’s Polygon-based protocol has become a hotbed for election betting, generating over $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts.

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