Polymarket insights on the 2024 election outcomes

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, prediction markets are awash with bets and speculation.

Popular blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket offers an insight into the current sentiment.

Let’s take a closer look at what the data reveals about the likely outcomes in the race for the White House.

Presidential election winner: Trump ahead

With nearly $400 million in bets on the outcome, the prediction market for the winner of the 2024 presidential election sees Donald Trump leading with a 59% chance of victory, backed by $50.5 million in bets. Kamala Harris follows with a solid 40% probability, based on $33.7 million in bets.

Polymarket’s “2024 Presidential Election Winner” betting pool | Source: Polymarket

All the other candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, are far behind. According to market bets, those candidates have less than a 1% chance of winning the November ballot.

Popular vote: Harris expected to come out on top

In a contrasting prediction, Polymarket users currently think Kamala Harris will win the popular vote, with 62% of bettors betting more than $2.7 million on her word.

Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Popular Vote Winner 2024” betting pool | Source: Polymarket

Donald Trump is leading the presidential race but trailing in the popular vote market with a 36% chance and $5.3 million in bets in his favor.

Interestingly, this difference highlights the possibility of a split between the electoral and popular vote results, a scenario reminiscent of previous elections in U.S. history.

Balance of power: slight advantage for Republicans

Turning to the broader question of which party will control power post-election, Polymarket provides a detailed picture.

Polymarket’s “Balance of Power: Election 2024” betting pool | Source: Polymarket

The “Balance of Power: Election 2024” market, which has seen about $3.7 million in total bets, shows a narrow margin for a Republican sweep with a 34% chance, supported by just $570,000 in bets. Meanwhile, the Democrats have a 22% chance of a sweep, based on more than $328,000 in bets.

More nuanced scenarios, such as those with a Republican president, a Republican Senate and a Democratic House of Representatives, remain at 23%, while the odds of a Democratic president with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House of Representatives remain at 18%.

Biden’s exit causes confusion in the race

Unlike President Joe Biden, who has been at odds with the community with his stance on crypto, it is still unknown how Harris approaches crypto.

However, reports have emerged that the vice president’s team has reached out to some of the major players in the industry to rebuild relationships at a time when the crypto sector is largely supportive of Trump.

Some speculate that this potential reassessment of crypto could make Harris a more plausible candidate than Biden, with the gap between Harris and Trump narrowing among Polymarket bettors.

Interestingly, many of the sentiments expressed by users on the crypto prediction market largely coincide with mainstream polls.

For example, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted just after Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, suggests the fight between Harris and Trump will be very close.

According to that poll, Harris has a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%. The two were tied at 44% in the July 15-16 poll, and Trump had a 1% lead in the July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.

Overall, these predictions offer valuable insight into the current political landscape as viewed by the betting public. The decentralized nature and accessibility of crypto-based prediction markets in particular arguably provides visibility to a wider range of opinions and sentiments. As always, predictions are not set in stone, and the dynamic nature of politics means that public opinion and betting odds can change rapidly.