Harris’ odds up to 46% after Walz VP pick

Polymarket users are increasingly confident that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be president after a major announcement.

Polymarket bettors have placed more bets on Kamala Harris beating former president Donald Trump down the ballot after she picked Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate.

After Democrats announced a cryptocurrency-skeptical vice president, Kamala Harris’ odds of winning this year’s presidential election reached an all-time high of 46% on Polymarket.

The “2024 Presidential Election Winner” bet is by far Polymarket’s largest election prediction pool, with more than $508 million spent buying what the platform calls outcome stocks. Stocks that favored Trump traded at 53 cents on a 53% chance of a Republican victory. More than $64.7 million were bet on that outcome, with $50.8 million on Harris.

2024 presidential election forecast on August 6 | Source: Polymarket Polymarket and industry react to Harris-Walz Dem ticket

While Harris’ chances have improved after Walz picked her, the Minnesota governor has not shown a pro-crypto view. On the contrary, as noted by Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, Walz has pushed for stricter crypto regulatory policies to protect America’s economic and financial stability.

Crypto social media sentiment appears to have viewed the move as bearish, with Walz either partially reviewing digital assets or avoiding commenting on the sector altogether. After President Joe Biden’s regime oversaw its longest crypto crackdown, a growing bloc of voters may be looking for a different approach from the White House.

The industry is somewhat divided between Trump’s ambitious Bitcoin (BTC) promises and the possibility that a potential Harris-led administration would reconsider its engagement with the evolving crypto ecosystem by mending ties.

Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Tim Walz has argued that stricter crypto regulations are needed to ensure the safety and stability of the financial system and protect consumers from potential fraud and abuse.

— matthew sigel on healing CFA (@matthew_sigel) August 6, 2024