The Shortest Bull Run in History or the Great Bitcoin Rally? Analysts discuss the current state of BTC

Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed below its bullish support band, making it the fourth week in a row to do so.

The $58,748 close has kept the asset below key moving averages, as analyst Benjamin Cowen described in a post on X on Aug. 19.

Also, the last three weekly candles have been compressed, with two in spinning top formations, suggesting that a burst of volatility could be coming soon.

#BTC with another weekly close below its bull market support band pic.twitter.com/xKypm25zfP

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 19, 2024

What the analysts say

HODL15Capital reported that “Bitcoin shorts have become very aggressive on multiple exchanges” on August 19, with 24-hour short volume rising 119%.

However, crypto liquidations appear to have returned to more stable levels, according to CoinGlass, which reports that 7,852 traders liquidated and total liquidations of $76.34 million.

Meanwhile, Web3 researcher Stacy Muur looked at Bitcoin’s social and search sentiment, noting that we are now at levels last seen in November 2023.

If you think we’re experiencing a bull market correction, check out Google Trends.

We are now at the levels seen in November 2023.

Was the spring of 2024 the shortest bull run in history or was there no bull market at all? pic.twitter.com/ZUsz6dVAfy

— Stacy Muur (@stacy_muur) August 18, 2024

However, Glassnode data suggests that long-term hodl sentiment is strengthening, with nearly three-quarters of the BTC supply remaining idle over the past six months, according to Hodl Wave charts.

Analyst “Rekt Capital” analyzed the previous cycles and noted that Bitcoin is now about 125 days after the halving.

He added that Bitcoin tends to enter the parabolic phase of the cycle around 160 days after the halving.

“If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could be just over a month away from the breakout. That’s late September.”

Lulls in the year before a bull market peak are common and have occurred in all previous cycles, so current market patterns are nothing new.

Where next for BTC?

The US presidential election will have an impact on the markets, especially if Donald Trump wins, but it won’t be until November.

An interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is virtually inevitable, and markets have already factored it in.

In a note last week, FxPro Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that an important fundamental factor remains BTC sales from US government portfolios.

“The psychological effect must be taken into account, which makes buyers wait for the end of the sale or speculate about the risks of regulatory tightening,” he added.

BTC was trading up 1.7% on the day at $58,454 at the time of writing after failing to break the $60,100 resistance on Sunday.

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