September is more than half over, and all eyes in the cryptocurrency community are on October, commonly known as Uptober, given the historical performances of BTC and altcoins.
Here are three signs (and a bonus) that hint at an upcoming bitcoin price rally in late 2024.
Whale watching (x2)
CryptoQuant’s recent analysis reviewed two important aspects of whale activity. The first includes newer market participants who have accumulated their BTC deposit in the last 155 days. Their average core cost is $62,038, which means they have minor unrealized losses of less than 5%.
According to chain data, however, these newer whales are refusing to sell at current prices: quite the opposite. The report says they are “still rallying, showing long-term confidence in bitcoin.”
Larger whales, those that entered the ecosystem more than 155 days ago, are in the opposite corner in terms of unrealized benefits. His cost base is $27,843, which means his invested funds have more than doubled. However, the report described their HODLing behavior as they refrain from selling even with such impressive increases.
Miners tend to HODL
Being the heart and soul of the Bitcoin network, miners have a very important job in safeguarding the world’s largest blockchain. They are rewarded with 450 BTC per day (after halving in 2024) for their efforts, and most of the largest mining companies have accumulated substantial stockpiles. What they do with these holdings often affects the price of BTC, especially if they decide to sell in bulk.
However, this has not been the case lately. CryptoQuant’s analysis determined that its average base cost is $43,179, meaning miners have (unrealized) profits of just under 40%.
“Although it is in profit, there are no signs of a massive selloff, suggesting that they may hold or sell off gradually.” – read the report.
The only possible threat comes from Binance traders as they seem more inclined to sell quickly and make a profit. However, this is also questionable as the current trend shows that they are “actively buying”. Additionally, BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, reducing immediate selling pressure.
“New whales and Binance traders are actively buying, while old whales continue to hold. This combination could indicate market stability and potential price growth.” – concluded the CryptoQuant analysis.
Bonus: rate cuts
While many market participants believe that potential rate cuts by the US Fed have already been priced in, they are still worth mentioning because of the impact they could have on the entire industry History shows that lower interest rates (i.e. cheaper money available for lending) have led to higher prices in the crypto market and vice versa.
With many global central banks, including Canada, the UK and the ECB, already cutting their domestic interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that the time has come to follow- them The next FOMC meeting is on September 18-19, and expectations for rate cuts range from 25 to 75 basis points.
This could perfectly coincide with one of the most bullish months in BTC history, which is just around the corner: October (until October). CoinGlass data shows that only two of the last 11 Octobers have been in the red, while average returns stand at 22.9%.
Monthly Bitcoin Returns. Source: CoinGlass SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored) Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive an exclusive welcome offer of $600 to Binance (full details).
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