Big Bull Run or a Depressing Bear Market Ahead?

TL;DR

Bitcoin is showing signs of a possible recovery, with some analysts predicting a jump to a new all-time high. Conversely, increased foreign exchange inflows suggest possible short-term selling pressure. Good news for the bulls?

Bitcoin price witnessed enhanced ups and downs last week, ranging from $56,000 to $60,500. It is currently trading around $59,200, which represents an increase of 1% on a daily basis.

BTC Price, Source: CoinGecko

Despite its shaky performance of late, many industry participants believe a substantial rally could be just around the corner. X user Satoshi Flipper noted BTC’s recent rally above $59,000, stating that the calls for a rise to $64,000 are “getting louder and louder”.

Elja (an X user with nearly 700,000 followers) imagined a “massive eruption” is coming, while Mags expects “the biggest bullfight of all time.” The latter believes that the price of BTC could exceed $325,000 per coin sometime next year.

Titan of Crypto also presented an optimistic scenario. The analyst maintained that the primary cryptocurrency has historically performed well whenever the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hovered around 50.

The metric measures the speed and change of price movements, ranging from 0 to 100. A ratio above 70 typically indicates overbought conditions and could be a precursor to a correction. On the other hand, readings below 30 are considered bullish as they suggest that the asset may be overbought. The RSI is currently around 55.

A major factor that may cause significant volatility for BTC this week is the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 18. The US Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in years, making it easier to borrow money and increasing investors’ appetite for risk. -in assets such as cryptocurrencies. According to Polymarket, the odds of a 0.5% cut are 54%, while reducing the benchmark by 0.25% stands at 46%.

The bearish signal

Despite the overall bullish conditions, there are some elements that indicate that BTC could experience a short-term pullback.

An example is the net exchange flow of Bitcoin which has been predominantly positive for the past week with a major green candle seen on September 13th. The move suggests a shift away from self-custody methods towards centralized platforms and could signal increased selling pressure.

BTC Exchange Netflow, Source: CryptoQuant

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