Bitcoin Has Been Trading in the $59-65K Range for 125 Days

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience in September, a period typically associated with a downtrend, and is currently 22% higher than its previous low of $52,500 this month. All eyes are currently on the critical $65,200 mark, with market participants keeping a close eye on the cryptocurrency to see if it can break out of its current downtrend. The leading cryptocurrency has been falling since hitting a record high in March, causing concern for many investors.

To understand Bitcoin’s trading behavior, consider doing an analysis using a 10% price increase system. This provides a fairer comparison than using fixed dollar amounts, which can distort the analysis as the price increases. By focusing on percentage changes, it is possible to better understand how Bitcoin moves in terms of its value rather than dealing with absolute price changes.

The analysis in question reveals that the longest trading range occurred between $8,865 and $9,752 and lasted 155 days. This is not surprising since it also coincides with the 2018-2019 market cycle. During this time, bitcoin was consolidating after the post-2017 bull market peak and just before the mid-2019 recovery.

More recently, bitcoin spent 111 days between $54,271 and $59,699. It has now spent 126 trading days between $59,700 and $65,670, with the possibility of more.

Based on Bitcoin’s past behavior, we can say that it may continue to trade in the current range until the end of October.

As Bitcoin approaches critical levels, it’s important to be patient and keep an eye on these long-term trends. The cyclical nature of the market means that while this downtrend may seem like it will never end, breakouts present significant opportunities. Whether or not Bitcoin breaks past $65,200 soon, understanding these trading ranges provides invaluable insight into the market’s potential future direction.

It is also necessary to see the positive side of consolidation periods and decreasing volatility. In the current cycle, the declines are the quietest compared to previous cycles, with the largest decline being just under 30%. This stability is very important for new institutional investors who cannot cope with extreme fluctuations.

Bitcoin is up less than 1% in the third quarter, with just five trading days left this month. Headwinds like the German government sell-off and the Mt. Gox redemptions have made for a challenging period for bitcoin. The third quarter is also typically the weakest period for bitcoin, according to Coinglass.