Odds of Bitcoin price soaring to a new all-time high are rising: Polymarket

According to a recent survey by Polymarket, Bitcoin has a high chance of reaching a new high this year.

Polymarket users see BTC reach new record high

Sixty-three percent of survey respondents believe Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its upward trend and reach a new record high, up from a 42% low earlier this month.

As Bitcoin trades at $63,840, it needs to rally 15.6% to retest the all-time high of $68,777. This is possible as it has entered a technical bull market after rallying more than 21% from its September low.

Bitcoin has several potential catalysts that could propel it to new highs. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates and hinted at continuing the process.

Economic data released this week supports those cuts. The manufacturing PMI remained below 45 in September, indicating a contraction, according to S&P Global. Another report from the Conference Board showed consumer confidence fell this month as concerns about the labor market grew.

As a result, the Fed is likely to continue lowering interest rates to avoid a hard landing. Bitcoin and other risky assets tend to perform well when authorities adopt a moderate stance.

Meanwhile, data shows that institutional investors are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to Sosovalue, spot ETFs have seen inflows of over $392 million in the last four days, bringing the total cumulative amount to $17.8 billion.

Additional data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen to a new low, meaning most holders are moving their coins to their own storage. As of September 25, there were 2.35 million coins on exchanges, below the 2.7 million high since the beginning of the year.

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is seasonality. According to CoinGlass, the average Bitcoin return in the fourth quarter was 88%, while the median return was 56.90%. These figures are significantly better than the figures in the first three quarters of the year.

Bitcoin seasonality | Source: Coinglass Bitcoin price narrowly escapes death cross Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is if it avoids forming a death cross, where the 200-day and 50-day moving averages intersect each other. Historically, this cross has usually led to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin has climbed above both moving averages, which suggests that the bulls are currently taking control.

Additionally, Bitcoin has formed two bullish patterns: the inverse head and shoulders and the falling broadening wedge. Historically, these patterns usually lead to further upside.