Analysts are looking to September for a potential Bitcoin breakout despite the recent pullback

Bitcoin prices fell to an intraday low of $65,563 on July 30, marking a 6% drop since the start of the week.

The asset rallied to regain $66,000, but failed to hold on to that level, falling back below during the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning.

However, BTC markets remain in a five-month range channel and analysts are confident that they will break out higher in the coming months.

When Bitcoin Breakout?

On July 30, crypto analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ said that “Bitcoin is still on track for a September breakout.”

“History suggests that a break of the re-accumulation range just 100 days after the halving was always going to be unlikely,” he added of the premise of a break now.

In the last cycle, the breakout occurred about 160 days after the halving, so if history is right, that would be sometime in September.

Also, the cycle peak didn’t occur until the end of the following year last time, so that would mean there wouldn’t be a peak until the fourth quarter of 2025.

#BTC

Bitcoin is still on track for a September breakout

History suggests that a break in the re-accumulation interval only about 100 days after the Halving would always be unlikely.$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/WGJbTz43KC pic.twitter.com/Ll9BB3Dxxk

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 30, 2024

Trader Bob Loukas echoed the sentiment in a post on X on July 30, predicting a “solid breakout to Bitcoin’s all-time highs” around September 15.

He also predicted the asset would hit $100,000 on Dec. 1, adding, “At least that’s within a very reasonable cycle projection based on past behavior.”

Another market catalyst

September 18 also has a very important Federal Reserve meeting scheduled, which is likely to see a rate cut for the first time since early 2020. According to CME Group, the odds of a rate cut in September are 85.8%

A rate cut is generally positive for high-risk assets like crypto, because borrowing becomes cheaper, there is more liquidity in the markets, and risk appetite increases due to lower interest returns on capital.

There is also a Fed meeting today, July 31, where policymakers will shed light on monetary policy. However, it has been widely expected that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%.

Markets seem to have already factored this in, with crypto assets and major tech stocks falling this week. The total crypto market cap is down 2% since the start of the week to $2.47 trillion at the time of writing.

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