Bitcoin More Likely to Fall by $5K Than Rise by Same Amount: Analyst

FxPro analyst said that the BTC market is showing signs of seller dominance.

BTC’s recovery stalls as Harris surpasses Trump in prediction markets.

Bitcoin’s {{BTC}} rapid recovery from the sub-$50,000 price seen last Monday has revived the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market and spurred calls for a rally towards $90,000 and higher.

However, one analyst is predicting renewed losses in the short term, expecting the price to drop $5,000 from the market price of around $58,500.

“Bitcoin is likely to fall by $5,000 rather than rise by the same amount,” Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.

Kuptsikevich’s bearish takeaway comes as Bitcoin has failed to hold onto gains above $60,000 following a death cross of the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) following a bearish reversal.

“Bitcoin has failed to break above $60,000 and is facing sell-off after attempting to break above the 50- and 200-day MAs last weekend, indicating seller dominance,” Kuptsikevich said.

He added that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) no longer shows oversold conditions, meaning there is room for another wave of declines, consistent with the recent seller dominance above $60,000.

The 14-day RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI below 30, observed after last Monday’s crash, indicates oversold conditions and is usually a sign of a pause in a downtrend and a price recovery.

“On the daily timeframe, the RSI index has moved out of the oversold zone and is losing momentum for further strength,” Kuptsikevich said, explaining the bearish trend.

The possibility of near-term BTC price weakness is likely to increase if the US July consumer price index data, expected to be released on Wednesday, shows sticker inflation and undermines hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates in the coming months.

Bitcoin surged to levels above $60,000 last weekend, retracing more than 50% of the five-day decline through Aug. 5. Since then, the recovery has stalled as pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump has ceded ground to rival Kamala Harris in prediction markets that hinge on the outcome of the Nov. 4 U.S. election.