Bitcoin Retakes $62K as ‘Trump Trades’ Back In Vogue After Weekend Attack

BTC surges past $62,000 as Trump’s shooting increases odds of election victory

The yuan and Mexican peso are weaker, while Treasury futures point to higher yields.

Assets tied to US Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November 4 election are on the rise again following the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} has risen 7% to $62,500 since the weekend attack, giving the pro-crypto candidate a 70% chance of winning the election on Polymarket.

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has broken above the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) — a widely followed indicator of long-term trends and a trendline that has characterized the downtrend from early June peaks — a positive sign for momentum investors, CoinDesk data shows. Trump-themed Polifi tokens, which signal the intersection of politics and finance, also rose.

In recent months, Trump has reversed course and embraced crypto in an effort to take on rival Joe Biden and win over the supposedly single-issue crypto community, which is looking for a friendlier regulatory environment for the sector. As such, bitcoin and the broader crypto market have become a bet on Trump’s victory. The former president is set to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.

“The biggest fundamental news over the weekend was the Trump assassination attempt. Absolutely insane. It increased the likelihood of Trump becoming president. The fact that Trump is a pro-crypto president should help boost crypto offerings,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email.

BTC daily chart (TradingView)

Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan (CNY) traded lower against the U.S. dollar because a potential Trump victory could mean higher trade tariffs. Earlier this year, Trump proposed revoking China’s “most favored nation” status for U.S. trade and imposing tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. The Mexican peso (MXN) also fell due to Trump’s strained relations with the Latin American country during his previous presidency.

Prices for futures tied to the 10-year Treasury note fell, pointing to higher yields as Trump’s return to the White House means more spending, tax cuts and higher deficits. Several investment banks are betting that a Trump victory will further steepen an already inverted yield curve in the coming months. Historically, sharp steepening has led to broad-based risk aversion in financial markets.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 were trading 0.18% higher at press time, signaling a positive opening on Monday even as Asian stocks fell on disappointing economic growth figures in China. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of major fiat currencies, was trading 0.10% higher at 104.19, according to TradingView.