Bitcoin still bullish but far from euphoric peaks: Bitfinex Alpha

Bitcoin is currently trading above $107,000, but analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex say the asset is still far from “euphoric peaks.” Historical data cited by analysts suggests that the crypto market is in the middle of a bullish phase and could peak in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, roughly 450 days after the dip in mid-April 2024.

In a weekly report detailing expectations for bitcoin’s price in 2025, Bitfinex analysts said it could peak at $339,000 or $145,000 as declining returns moderate the level of gains seen in previous cycles.

BTC still far from euphoric peaks

Bitcoin is up 573% from bear market lows of $15,487 in November 2022 and up 130% year-to-date. This bull market has been fueled by strong institutional demand, spot accumulation and steady purchases of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot ETFs are now considered a dominant force in the Bitcoin market. The products contain more than 1.13 million BTC and have a cumulative inflow of more than $50 billion.

With institutional investors and the local Bitcoin ETF market driving demand for BTC, analysts expect corrections in this bullish cycle to remain relatively small. Data from previous cycles also shows that BTC has seen minimal corrections after price discovery was introduced after the halving. In 2017, the maximum decline during these phases was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle was a minimum of 27.1%.

“In the current bull cycle, which started in mid-to-late 2023, Bitcoin’s corrections have been minor, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand providing pressure of steady buying, we expect this trend to continue, keeping future corrections limited and potentially shorter in duration,” Bitfinex said.

Optimistic expectations for 2025

While analysts have optimistic expectations for BTC in 2025, they have cautioned that the cryptocurrency may not see as high a rise as those recorded in previous cycles. In 2021, BTC rose approximately 40% from its moving averages; however, the trend of diminishing returns could put the upside at 15-20% above the moving averages.

This translates to a BTC peak of $160,000 or $200,000 in mid-2025 or, in a less likely scenario, $290,000 in early 2026.

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