Bitcoin to $180K? Expect a 30% correction, VanEck warns

VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, announced a detailed forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

Sigel predicted on Friday that Bitcoin (BTC) would reach $180,000 in the first quarter before experiencing a correction. The analysis predicts that Ethereum (ETH) will rise above $6,000, while cryptocurrencies such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) may reach $500 and $10, respectively.

Sigel predicts that this initial peak will be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin pulling back 30 percent and altcoins experiencing deeper declines of up to 60 percent in the summer months.

To identify potential market tops, Sigel highlights a few key indicators investors should watch. The research points out that sustainably high funding rates are a very important signal.

He noted that if investors consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or more to bet on Bitcoin price increases, this generally indicates excessive speculation in the market.

The analysis also highlights the importance of tracking unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders. The fact that a majority of stockholders maintain paper earnings with a profit-to-cost ratio exceeding 70% usually signals that the market is enthusiastic.

Bitcoin’s market dominance serves as another critical indicator. Sigel warns that a drop below 40 percent could indicate excessive speculation in altcoins; This is a typical example of recent market behavior.

The research attributes the market’s current momentum largely to Donald Trump’s election victory and his administration’s projected appointments. The expected crypto-friendly leadership team, including Vice Chairman J.D. Vance and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, is proposing a shift away from previous restrictive policies towards a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

After the summer correction, Sigel predicts the market will recover in the fall of 2025. Major cryptocurrencies will likely return to previous all-time highs by the end of the year.

This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and supporting regulatory developments under new management.

This market outlook provides investors with specific price targets and warning signals to watch, while also acknowledging the impact of political developments on the crypto market.