Bitcoin to retest ATH this year if US avoids recession, Grayscale forecasts

Grayscale Research says Bitcoin could retest its all-time high later this year if the U.S. economy avoids a recession.

Despite the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, Grayscale Research analysts predict that prices could rise even higher in the coming months.

If the U.S. economy achieves a “soft landing” and avoids a recession, token valuations could recover and Bitcoin (BTC) could reach “new all-time highs” later this year, Grayscale analysts suggested in an Aug. 8 research report.

“Changes in the U.S. political environment around the crypto industry could also reduce downside risks to valuations compared to past cycles.”

Grayscale

Even in a weaker economic environment, downside risks could be “more limited” than in past cycles, the company said, citing stable demand from newly listed U.S. exchange-traded products and lower altcoin yields as mitigating factors.

Market volatility index | Source: Grayscale

Grayscale stated that market stability in the coming period will depend on the upcoming macroeconomic data and central bank policies, and that events such as the Federal Reserve’s September meeting and the Jackson Hole Symposium will play an important role in shaping the environment.

Bitcoin wins in every scenario

Regardless of the scenario, Grayscale Research remains optimistic, suggesting that even a period of economic weakness could strengthen the long-term investment case for Bitcoin, especially in light of the ongoing “undisciplined approach” to monetary and fiscal policies.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading above $60,000, having recovered after briefly dipping below $50,000 following Monday’s decline, according to data from crypto.news. Bitcoin has so far held the $50,000 support level, fueling speculation that whales are continuing to accumulate at current prices. This could signal potential moves higher later on, especially since Bitcoin has generally traded in a relatively low price range throughout September and October.