Bitcoin’s Recent Lowers Higher Signals Possible Trend Reversals, Analysts Are Cautiously Optimistic

A higher low occurs in a downtrending market when the latest decline is not as deep as the previous one. This could be a sign of a trend reversal as selling pressure eases.

The latest decline saw BTC prices fall to a low of $53,300, which was not as deep as the fall below $50,000 on August 5. The low before that was a drop to $54,200 on July 5, so the asset seems to have found solid support.

This was noted by analyst ‘Mando’ in a post on X on September 10, however, others noted that this does not rule out further lower lows.

Has BTC Just Made Its First High Low In 6 Months? pic.twitter.com/1Bn9fnwTSV

— Mando (@rektmando) September 9, 2024

$BTC

Causally making its first highest low in nearly 200 days…

Potential rate cuts next week…

Fear and Greed: Extreme Fear…

Bottom signals flying left and right…

time to pray pic.twitter.com/hvaMWYkb2h

— cousin crypto (@cousincrypt0) September 9, 2024

Analysts remain optimistic

Investor and analyst ‘Kaleo’ was also bullish, stating that “Bitcoin is in a healthier place now than when it was at the same point after last cycle’s mid-cycle drawdown.”

He added that 141 days after the halving, BTC is only down 19% from its last cycle high, but in 2020 it’s down about 46% from its 2017 141-day top after halving.

“When we break out of the range at new ATHs this time, institutional money can be channeled more easily with spot ETFs, we have more regulatory clarity, and we could finally have a pro-crypto president as one of their key points.”

Analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ also looked at previous halving cycles, noting that if history repeats itself, the next bull market peak will occur 518-546 days after the event:

“This would mean that Bitcoin could peak in this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025.”

#BTC

In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the halving

In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the halving

If history repeats itself and the next bull market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…

This would mean that Bitcoin could peak in this cycle… pic.twitter.com/HBF179wJXl

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 9, 2024

Meanwhile, full-time crypto trader ‘Sykodelic’ said: “I’m 95% sure we’ve bottomed out here at $52.5k.”

They added that they were 95% confident that “we won’t see anywhere near $44,000.” This determination comes from the analysis of the USDT (Tether) dominance chart, which is at bear market levels and moving in divergence from BTC prices.

“Investing is a game of odds, and based on the evidence of the whole market situation we’re in, the odds are heavily weighted to the upside from where I look.”

Inflation problems persist

Analyst James Check said sentiment was so bad because of weakened purchasing power. The last three years of high inflation have weakened the dollar and decreased the amount that can be bought with it.

“Could be due to 2020 buying power, price is -40% below 2021 ATH…rather than -25% of spot ATH.”

why does it #Bitcoin feel so bad

Could be due to 2020 buying power, price is -40% below 2021 ATH…instead of -25% spot ATH.

This assumes that actual inflation is ~2-3 times higher than the reported CPI (at least).

Same as the 2019 peak. pic.twitter.com/L566NTvEuc

— _Chess and checkmate ⚡☢️️ (@_Escacmatey_) September 9, 2024

Real inflation tends to be much higher than CPI reports indicate, and investors seem to be feeling that during this cycle.

BTC was trading up 3.3% on the day at $56,648 at the time of writing.

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