Can $1.3B Bitcoin Options Expire Market Sentiment on September 13th?

About 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Friday, September 13. These derivatives have a theoretical value of about $1.34 billion.

Today’s options expiration is roughly double the size of last week’s expiration event, so the impact on cushioned crypto spot markets may be larger.

Expiration of Bitcoin Options

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.86, meaning there are slightly more long contracts (calls) expiring than short contracts (puts), but they are tighter.

Open interest, or the value of open contracts yet to expire, is still elevated at strike prices of $70,000 and $75,000, where there is $627 million and $638 million in OI, respectively, according to Deribit.

Also, there is about $751 million in OI at the $90,000 strike price and still $930 million at the $100,000 strike price.

Bitcoin OI by Expiry. Source: Deribit

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live noted that the week “was coming to a smooth end, as the US presidential debate and various macro data such as the CPI “did not bring significant volatility”.

He added that expectations for Fed rate cuts next week are gradually converging. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is 87 percent, and the chance of a 50 bps rate cut is just 13 percent.

“Meanwhile, options data shows a significant decline in IVs (implied volatility) across all major terms, with market volatility expectations running short and the market theme for September still swinging” .

Options data for September 13
23,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call ratio of 0.87, a Maxpain point of $58,000 and a notional value of $1.34 billion.
127,000 ETH options will expire with a Put Call ratio of 0.73, a Maxpain point of $2,400 and a notional value of… pic.twitter.com/tgmBzxZqan

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) September 13, 2024

In addition to this week’s Bitcoin options, there are about 126,700 Ethereum options expiring with a notional value of $299 million. These derivative contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.73, which is very similar to last week’s expiration.

Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index remains at “Fear” (32) as market sentiment remains battered.

Crypto market outlook

Total market capitalization has remained flat over the past 24 hours at $2.13 trillion.

Bitcoin has ranged from an intraday low of $57,300 to around $58,400, failing to advance above resistance here. However, BTC has recovered from its September 7 low below $54,000 and remains tightly capped.

Ethereum is also trading in a tight channel between $2,320 and $2,360, which has been the case for most of this week. Altcoins are mostly in the red, with only XRP and Toncoin (TON) making significant gains around 3%.

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