Can Bitcoin price rise above $100,000? In chain says so (CryptoQuant)

Bitcoin (BTC) is still far from overvalued levels that signal the end of a bullish cycle despite rising above $99,000 last week.

According to on-chain data analyzed by CryptoQuant, the cryptocurrency may still break above $100,000 to $146,000, the primary target from a realized price valuation perspective. This outlook indicated the peak price of BTC in previous cycles, including the rally witnessed between April and May 2021.

No signs of a Bitcoin market top yet

Bitcoin valuation metrics strongly indicate that the cryptocurrency is still in a bull market and has yet to enter overheating levels. One indicator is the CryptoQuant Profit and Loss Index, which is above its 365-day moving average.

Another metric is the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which remains in bullish territory and has been rising since early November, a sign that the bullish phase is intensifying. Like the Profit and Loss Index, this one is also far from the overheated bull phase zone, which it entered when BTC hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024.

Also, the value of BTC held by new investors is not yet at extreme levels. This condition has preceded the last two cycles.

At the time of writing, the value of BTC held by this cohort of investors is around 50% of the total money invested in the cryptocurrency. In previous cycles, this number has risen above 90% and 80%, after which BTC has topped out and started to pull back.

Retail activity remains absent

There is also a lack of high retail activity on the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin retail activity usually increases, and BTC investors buy aggressively, when the cryptocurrency is close to a cycle top and the bullish phase is about to end.

However, the opposite is happening right now as retail investors have been reducing their holdings since October. Retail investors have unloaded 41,000 BTC since last month, while large investors have increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC.

Meanwhile, the only metric that seems to indicate a near-term price correction for BTC is MSTR, shares of business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, which is also the largest public holder of bitcoin. MSTR has overheated and is down about 30% this week.

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