Can “Uptober” Push BTC to New Highs?

As Bitcoin surpasses $66,000, are we seeing the early stages of a long-term bull market or another temporary uptick?

Bitcoin is back in action

Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the spotlight as it broke through the $64,000 resistance level as the broader crypto market shows signs of recovery. As of October 14, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, marking a solid 5.5% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin 6-month price chart | Source: TradingView

This surge follows weeks of volatility in the crypto space, driven largely by global economic concerns and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.

One of the key factors behind this renewed momentum is the reaction of global markets to China’s latest economic updates. As it works to revitalize its economy, the highly anticipated stimulus announcement has many wondering if it will be enough.

Economists argue that China’s efforts to prevent deflation are insufficient, which has turned attention to Bitcoin. According to Bloomberg, some speculators are shifting from Chinese stocks to crypto, taking advantage of Bitcoin’s momentum.

Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, emphasized that the “capital rotation from Bitcoin to Chinese stocks” had previously put cryptocurrencies under pressure. Now that this rotation has eased, Bitcoin appears to be reaping the benefits.

Adding to the positive momentum, the bankrupt Mt. Gox crypto exchange’s decision last week to postpone the repayment date to creditors for another year has eased concerns in the market somewhat. The exchange has around $2.7 billion worth of Bitcoin debt, and the delay eased fears of a large-scale selloff.

And perhaps the most exciting factor? October, affectionately referred to as “Uptober” by the crypto community, has historically been Bitcoin’s most profitable month. Bitcoin has gained an average of over 21% in October since its inception, but there were setbacks in 2014 and 2018.

So where does this leave Bitcoin now? Let’s take a deeper look at what’s next for BTC and what Bitcoin price predictions could mean in the coming days.

Factors fueling market momentum

Bitcoin has been gaining momentum lately due to a few key factors.

One of the clearest signs of positive momentum is inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. After a brief period of outflow, spot BTC ETFs experienced a massive turnaround on October 11, recording the largest inflow in two weeks, exceeding $253 million.

This suggests that the recent selling pressure on Bitcoin may ease as investors regain confidence. ETF inflows generally indicate institutional interest and signal brighter days ahead for Bitcoin.

The US presidential race is also contributing to Bitcoin’s rise. Prediction markets have reversed and now favor pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

As of October 14, Trump’s odds of winning at Polymarket were 54%, while Harris’s had fallen to 45%, reaching its lowest point since she launched her campaign. A Trump win is seen as positive for the crypto industry, potentially leading to more crypto-friendly policies.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s largest institutional backer, MicroStrategy (MSTR), continues to outperform the market. Since adopting its Bitcoin-centric strategy in August 2020, MicroStrategy’s shares have risen 1,620%, vastly outperforming Bitcoin, the “Magnificent 7” tech giants, and the S&P 500.

Chief Executive Michael Saylor remains bullish and recently tweeted that ‘The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin.’

However, Bitcoin mining has seen mixed results recently. While BTC prices increased by 5% this month, the network’s hashrate also increased by 11%, which slightly affected the profitability of miners.

Analysts at Jefferies noted that miners’ revenue per exahash fell 2.6% in September, and October could be more challenging unless prices rise.

Bitcoin’s momentum is further strengthened by the Federal Reserve’s latest moves. The Fed reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points on September 18, bringing the short-term benchmark interest rate to 4.75%-5.00%.

The market is also pricing in additional cuts in November and December, with an 86% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Low rates often benefit risky assets like Bitcoin, as cheaper borrowing costs drive investors to higher-yielding alternatives.

What to expect next?

Looking at both macro and crypto-specific data reveals several key observations about the market’s potential direction. Let’s take a look at some critical opinions.

Whale accumulation and minimum resistance

Bitcoin faces minimal resistance in the $55,000 to $64,000 range, according to IntoTheBlock’s “Entry/Exit of Price Around the Currency.”

Accordingly @intotheblockPrice Entry/Exit data around the Currency shows that Bitcoin is facing minimal resistance in terms of volume. Whales have significantly increased their holdings in the sub-$60k range. Currently more than 4.3 million $BTC volume “Parada” with 55 thousand dollars… pic.twitter.com/i90ITpNke5

— Slim Daddy◻️𓃵 ₿ (@felixreads) 14 October 2024

The fact that more than 4.3 million BTC is “in the money” here by volume means that many holders are in profitable positions, reinforcing the importance of this range.

The important takeaway from this data is that whales, who are large Bitcoin holders, have steadily increased their positions below $60,000.

“Whales have significantly increased their holdings in the sub-$60k range,” says crypto market observer Slim Daddy. This pattern shows that major investors believe Bitcoin is undervalued and poised for a breakout.

Historically, whale accumulation often signals impending bullish rallies as purchasing powers create upward pressure on the price. From a technical perspective, this strengthens the possibility of a breakout, especially as Bitcoin holds above $62,000.

Key resistance at $64,000

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees Bitcoin’s recent test of $62,000 as a harbinger of an even bigger move. He predicts that a “massive rally” is on the way and that “a test of $64,000 will likely bring the big breakout the market is looking for.”

We will probably have a 1-2 day consolidation period #Bitcoinbut we have already tested $62,000.

A test of $64,000 will likely bring the big breakout we’re looking for.

The construction is very large.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 13 October 2024

The $64,000 level is critical for both psychological and technical reasons. Psychologically, it represents an important area where many traders set stop losses or take profits. Technically, this is a resistance zone where strong selling pressure may emerge.

If Bitcoin breaks above $64,000 decisively, it could pave the way for a sustainable rise towards previous all-time highs. However, if this level is not exceeded, a retreat may occur.

While the whale accumulation below $60,000 offers some support, a failure at $64,000 could lead to temporary consolidation or a short-term decline.

Bitcoin price predictions: 2024 and beyond

While Bitcoin is currently gaining momentum again, the big question on everyone’s mind is: Where can Bitcoin go next?

Analysts and market experts have offered a variety of predictions, each based on different data models. Let’s explore what they say about the future of Bitcoin starting in 2024.

Bitcoin price prediction for 2024

One of the more conservative predictions comes from Coincodex, which predicts that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high of $89,885 by November 2024; This is a 38% increase from current levels, surpassing the previous high of $73,750 in March 2024.

Another model from DigitalCoinPrice offers a wider range and predicts that the Bitcoin price will fall between $59,195 and $144,380. On average, they predict Bitcoin will hover around $137,331 in 2024.

Bitcoin price prediction for 2025

According to Coincodex, Bitcoin is expected to trade between $65,494 and $102,794 in 2025. DigitalCoinPrice, on the other hand, offers a more bullish outlook, predicting a range of $141,620 to $169,264.

Titan of Crypto also predicts that Bitcoin could move towards $105,000 in 2025, based on Fibonacci circle analysis. He suggests that this is a conservative estimate and indicates the potential for even higher earnings depending on market conditions.

#Bitcoin Up to $105,000 🚀

This is a prudent approach as market returns tend to decline over time. #BTC Price prediction for the current cycle based on Fibonacci circles analysis.

Personally, I believe it can go a little further than that. pic.twitter.com/NA6S36JzgL

— Crypto Titan (@Washigorira) 12 October 2024

Bitcoin price prediction for 2030

Bitcoin price predictions for 2030 are getting more dramatic. Coincodex predicts that Bitcoin could trade between $118,333 and $305,028 by then. On the high end, DigitalCoinPrice sees Bitcoin reaching around $493,000; This is a huge increase from current levels.

If Bitcoin continues to gain institutional adoption and preference as the main financial asset, it is not out of the question that it will reach these high figures by 2030. However, caution must be exercised.

The road ahead

Although these predictions paint an exciting picture of the future of Bitcoin, it is important to approach them with caution. Bitcoin’s volatility means that large swings in either direction are always possible. Market psychology, global financial conditions and unexpected events can quickly change these forecasts.

It is very important for investors to stay informed and have a long-term perspective. Always consider your risk tolerance and the broader market before making investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.