Crypto in the 2024 US Elections: Republicans’ New Weapon

For almost a year now, the torch of a bull run in crypto assets has been expected to be lit. Considering that we are experiencing the longest bear season in crypto history, it is very normal for people to look for a reason to be bullish. However, there is something we need to put aside our impatient attitude and consider; could the reason we are looking for have been right in front of us for a long time?

Our first hope that bull markets would visit us again began with the resignation of Binance founding CEO CZ in November of last year. This development, which ended the claims that Binance controlled the market, did not give us what we expected. Then, the Bitcoin ETF approval that we had been waiting for years welcomed us just as we were entering the new year, but unfortunately, it did not give us what we expected. With companies and even states getting more involved in the game, the Bitcoin Halving that we experienced towards the end of April did not green the markets. It seems that we have no trump cards left except for the possible interest rate cuts by the FED and the US elections.

While the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates at least once in 2024 still gives people hope, some people continue to expect Trump to have a positive impact on the markets, just like in 2016. This effect, called the “Trump Trade,” was observed with the rise in US stocks, treasury yields and the dollar after the 2016 elections. Therefore, people want to see a second Trump Trade movement if Trump wins the election.

Cryptocurrency markets could see a new boost in the 2024 election cycle as the Republican Party and Donald Trump embrace crypto-friendly policies. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra say Republicans see their positive stance on the crypto industry as a strategy to both win voters and secure campaign funds from crypto-supporting super PACs. This approach parallels the Trump Trade in 2016.

If Trump is re-elected, it is expected that there will be a rally in the crypto markets due to increased institutional adoption and a more favorable regulatory environment. Trump previously met with the leaders of Bitcoin mining companies at Mar-a-Lago, expressed his support for crypto mining and emphasized that Bitcoin should be produced in the US. In fact, there have been reports for about a week that Trump is considering appointing BlackRock CEO Larry Fink as head of the Treasury. However, the possibility that Trump will return to his past skepticism towards crypto should of course not be ignored if he is re-elected.

On the other hand, President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the election due to illness and his announcement of support for Vice President Kamala Harris brought with it many questions. Will they change their strategy or continue to confront cryptocurrencies?

During the Biden administration, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had taken tough measures against crypto platforms. However, the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs can be interpreted as a softening of this attitude. Although it is observed that Trump is the candidate who is closest to crypto assets, we are not the only ones who are aware of this… Kamala Harris is also aware. Therefore, just like Biden, she is aware that maintaining an approach against crypto assets will not have a very positive impact on the election campaign. In a sense, for the first time in history, we are entering an election where Bitcoin does not need anyone.

At the same time, it wouldn’t surprise us at all if the next presidential election were to be between the two people who would try to appear closest to crypto. Especially if Trump wins and his plans to lead the US in crypto come true, in any case, candidates in the coming years will want to maintain that.

In light of these developments, it is stated that both candidates’ statements on crypto should be followed carefully. Analysts state that the promises of Trump or Harris, who Biden handed over the candidacy, regarding crypto should not be trusted too much, because what was said during the campaign for the election to be held on November 5 may not be implemented in reality.