Crypto Markets to Continue Rising Amid $1.26B Expiring Bitcoin Options

About 18,500 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Friday, October 18, with a theoretical value of about $1.26 billion.

Today’s options expiration is very similar to last week’s, with the decrease in volatility resulting in smaller expiration events. For this reason, the impact on spot markets is likely to be minimal.

However, there is a huge $4 billion Bitcoin options expiration event on the last Friday of this month.

Expiration of Bitcoin Options

This week’s stretch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.86. This means that there are slightly more long contracts (calls) expiring than short contracts (puts).

Also, open interest (OI), or the value or number of open options contracts yet to expire, is still high at the $70,000 strike price, with over $1 billion at that price, according to Deribit. OI is also above $1 billion at the $100,000 strike price, suggesting that derivatives bulls are regaining confidence.

BTC OI by expiration. Source: Deribit

Analyst James Check noted that there was a new high in Bitcoin futures OI. He added that this means two things, high leverage means a higher likelihood of volatile shocks, but the bigger Bitcoin is, the bigger this metric becomes simply as a matter of scale.

New ATH a #Bitcoin open futures interest.

Two things:
1) High leverage means a higher probability of volatile shocks.
2) The bigger Bitcoin is, the bigger this metric will be simply as a matter of scale.

If you are long, be patient and don’t FOMO
Draws will occur pic.twitter.com/7MoS6edDRV

— _Chess and checkmate ⚡☢️️ (@_Escacmatey_) October 17, 2024

In addition to the current Bitcoin options, there are 137,000 Ethereum options that are about to expire with a put/call ratio of 0.62 and a notional value of $367 million. That brings Friday’s crypto options expiration to just over $1.6 billion for the week.

Crypto market outlook

Total market capitalization edged down slightly today to $2.42 trillion, even as Bitcoin hit a ten-week high.

The asset rose to $68,159 during the Asian trading session on Friday morning, building on momentum that has seen the asset gain nearly 12% since the same time last week.

BTC has not been at this price level since late July, leading analysts to speculate that a breakout is imminent after the higher high.

However, until BTC breaks its mid-March all-time high, it remains capped and could pull back over the weekend as profits are taken. Analysts were confident that the build-up period could be coming to an end.

I think any BTC target you had for this cycle should be adjusted higher now after 6 months of consolidation at previous ATHs. A lot of supply has changed hands, presumably now in the hands of those who are much more focused.

— Will (@WClementeIII) October 18, 2024

Altcoins are pulling back today with FUD-plagued Ethereum rejecting $2,650 again and retreating towards the $2,600 level at the time of writing.

Most altcoins were in the red, apart from Dogecoin (DOGE), which had gained 6% on the day to $0.132.

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