Daily Outlook: Bitcoin $50K

As of Sunday evening US time, the sell-off in the crypto market accelerated, causing bitcoin (BTC) to fall to levels not seen since February. Ether (ETH) also fell to prices not seen since December. Bitcoin lost 12 percent in the last 24 hours and 20 percent on a weekly basis. Ether (ETH), which lost 21 percent in the last 24 hours and 30 percent last week, has completely erased its gains since the beginning of the year. The biggest factor causing a major correction in crypto and traditional markets right now may be the Bank of Japan, which increased its benchmark interest rate last week. The financial tightening policy caused the yen to rise and the country’s Nikkei stock index to fall. The Nikkei, which fell another 6 percent earlier in the day, has fallen about 15 percent in the last three sessions.

Crypto-related company stocks fell along with digital asset prices. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) fell more than 9% in premarket trading. MicroStrategy (MSTR), known for its policy of buying Bitcoin and holding more than 1% of the total supply to be mined, lost 13%. Crypto asset manager CoinShares fell 7.5% in Sweden. Among U.S.-listed miners, Marathon Digital (MARA) and Iren (IREN) fell almost 14%, Hut 8 (HUT) fell 12%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell 11%.

Bitcoin’s recent price collapse has narrowed the spread between futures and spot prices, reducing the appeal of carry trades that seek to profit from discrepancies between the two markets. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap fell more than 18% in 24 hours to $50,000, its lowest level since February 2024. The sell-off, part of risk aversion in global markets, is likely due to sharp changes in the Japanese yen and U.S. bond markets. Leading crypto exchange Binance’s annualized three-month futures premium fell to 3.32%, the lowest level since April 2023, according to Velo Data. Crypto exchanges OKX and Deribit are also seeing a similar decline in futures premiums.

The chart shows the six-month trend of bitcoin, measuring the price difference between call and put options. A positive value indicates that the long-term trend remained bullish during the price drop to $50,000. Call options are a bullish bet on the overall market. Source: Amberdata