Daily Outlook: Bitcoin Retreats

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing fresh selling pressure after blockchain data showed that defunct exchange Mt. Gox began moving cryptocurrencies internally to repay creditors. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap fell 3% after testing $65,000 during early Asian trading hours, briefly dropping below $63,000. The drop came after a wallet associated with Mt. Gox initially moved 0.021 BTC ($1,000) to its blockchain address (1EoZd1QNCiN9JbnsqvLRDbHKLygAsXHg3V). The move, which was a test transfer, was followed by a significant transfer of 44,527 BTC ($2.84 billion) to an internal wallet, according to data tracked by Arkham Intelligence.

Crypto traders looking for clues about the next possible move on the programmable blockchain should keep a close eye on the triangle price consolidation observed in Solana’s SOL token. At least that’s the message from analysts at Fairlead Strategies, who see a potential triangle breakout as a catalyst for a renewed price rally. SOL, the world’s fifth-largest crypto asset, nearly doubled in the first quarter to levels above $200, as the outflow of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. propelled the crypto market higher. But the uptrend has since lost momentum, with pullbacks and increasingly shallow price recoveries centered around $120.

According to a research report by Citi, ether ETFs could see inflows of around 30-35% of the bitcoin product level. The report noted that this level would provide net inflows of between $4.7 billion and $5.4 billion over six months. The bank reported that ether returns and beta based on such flows could be lower than the analysis suggests. “One reason for this is that ETH could offer diversification benefits in the long term given its different and broader use cases, but that is not currently the case,” the analysts wrote. They also added that investors could split their existing allocations between bitcoin and ether ETFs instead of allocating additional funds to ether. Finally, the lack of staking in ETFs could also hinder inflows.

The seven-day options curve, which measures the wealth of call options relative to Bitcoin’s trading on Deribit, remains negative despite the cryptocurrency’s price recovery. Negative pressure indicates persistent demand for selling, or downside protection. Longer-term curves remain above zero, indicating an uptrend. Source: Amberdata