‘Election Fraud’ Claims Boost Harris Rates at Polymarket

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is increasingly likely to win next week’s US presidential election, according to contracts on crypto prediction market Polymarket. Some observers say this increase is due to a hedging environment among traders betting that Harris’ opponent, Donald Trump, will win.

Harris votes, which were evaluated as 33 percent on October 30, have now increased to almost 39 percent. Although Trump’s probability of winning decreases accordingly, Trump continues to be the candidate who manages to stay ahead with a 61% margin. Some market observers think that the decline recorded in the crypto market yesterday may be related to Trump’s decline in Polymarket.

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Market observers interpreted Harris’ share price rise as traders protecting themselves against Trump bets, after some market participants claimed there were reports of voting irregularities that could affect market bets against Trump.

At current prices, a $10,000 bet in favor of Harris could jump to $25,000 if Harris wins the election. This means a return on capital of 150%.

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Polymarket data shows “yes” shares for Harris and “no” shares for Trump generated significant activity in transactions exceeding $10,000 in the last 12 hours.

Polymarket user Clumpyclumsy, who joined the platform in October, purchased over $250,000 in Harris shares.

Some users on X have also pointed out that there is an arbitrage opportunity for traders participating in selection-based markets.

User named @Kevin_Bolger wrote, “There is a huge arbitrage opportunity in both Robinhood Securities and Polymarket.” “You can go Trump on Robinhood, Harris on Polymarket, and whoever wins, you win. Assuming transaction fees don’t make up the difference.”

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