Ethereum price may be about to surge, history says

Ethereum price has fallen sharply over the past few days after finding significant resistance at $4,000.

Ethereum (ETH) traded at $3,340 on Monday as cryptocurrencies stabilized. This was slightly higher than last week’s low of $3,100.

Seasonal data shows that Ethereum price may rebound sharply in the first quarter of 2025. According to CoinGlass, ETH has had positive returns in all but the first two quarters since 2017. Its best performance was in 2017, up 518%, followed by 202 years. When .1 increases by 160%.

The average first quarter return since 2017 has been 92%, making it the best quarter of the year. The second quarter is the best quarter, followed by the fourth quarter. The third quarter is usually the worst period for cryptocurrencies, probably due to the summer season.

Ethereum returns quarterly | Source: CoinGlass

More data shows Ethereum rose in the first four months after the US election. The average return in the first four months of Donald Trump’s administration was around 90%. Similarly, in 2021, Biden’s four-month return after he became president was $41.

Ethereum monthly returns | Source: CoinGlass

To be clear, seasonality data is not always a good predictor of what to expect. Ethereum crashed in January 2024, 2022, and 2019, and this could be one of them.

On the positive side, Ethereum price has some strong fundamentals. Spot ETH ETFs are seeing strong holdings by investors, with cumulative inflows reaching over $2.33 billion.

Ethereum’s network generated over $2.44 billion in fees this year, making it the second most profitable network after Tether. The network continues to dominate the decentralized finance industry, with a total value of $66 billion, higher than most ten chains combined.

Another potential catalyst for Ethereum price is the decline in futures open interest to $23 billion from its year-to-date high of $28 billion. The last time open interest was this low was in November and the cryptocurrency was back to $4,000.

ETH futures open interest | Source: CoinGlass Ethereum price technical analysis ETH price chart | Source: crypto.news

The weekly chart shows that Ether has strong technicals as it remains above the ascending trend line connecting the lowest swings since May 2022. It also broke out slightly above the 50-week moving average and the initial support of Andrew’s pitchfork tool.

Therefore, Ethereum price is likely to recover in the next few months. A full bullish trend will be confirmed if the coin’s triple top chart pattern breaks above $4,027. A move above this level would indicate more gains towards the all-time high at $4,860.