French bettor wins $79m on pro-Trump Polymarket bets, government threatens to ban site

Chainaliz claims that a France-based gambler won almost $79 million betting on Donald Trump’s presidential victory in nine Polymarket accounts. Meanwhile, the French government is threatening to ban the decentralized betting site.

Blockchain analysis firm Chainaliz, which tracks on-chain activity, found that a single French trader controlling nine accounts on Polymarket made an estimated $78.7 million in profits by betting that Trump would win the presidency.

1/ It was widely reported that a whale, allegedly a Frenchman named Theo, was controlling 4 whales. @Polymarket There were important positions in the accounts that Trump would win. We estimate it made a profit of ~$78.7 million. pic.twitter.com/laW9Y4zNXj

— Chaining (@chainaliz) 6 November 2024

Crypto.news reported that the trader, originally known as Theo4 and Fredi9999, made almost $22 million in profits by betting on Trump’s victory using four different accounts.

Theo4’s trades, one of Polymarket’s largest participants, have come under scrutiny as some analysts raised concerns about potential market manipulation. However, Polymarket denied any manipulation, claiming that the investor’s bets reflected his personal views rather than an attempt to manipulate the markets.

In late October, Polymarket chief executive Shayne Coplan denied allegations from the New York Times that the prediction platform was politically biased. Coplan described the Polygon-based betting service as an unbiased alternative data source capitalizing on the excitement surrounding the election at the moment. His comments came in response to a recent New York Times article that accused Polymarket of partisan manipulation and labeled it as nothing more than a “crypto-backed gambling” site.

“One merchant to rule them all”

But things took a new turn in a Nov. 6 thread when Chainalytics uncovered five additional accounts linked to the same trader. The New York-based blockchain analysis firm explained that the accounts are tied to “funding models, timing of transactions, and cash outflows to specific foreign currency deposit addresses.”

The trader earned approximately $79 million across all accounts, according to Chainalytics’ calculations. Theo4 has previously denied political motivations. He specifically emphasized that his bets were purely for financial purposes, as his aim was “just to make money”.

Meanwhile, France’s gambling authority will reportedly ban Polymarket. According to local media reports, the National Gaming Authority is reviewing the platform’s operations and compliance with French gambling laws. However, the regulator has not yet made an official statement on the issue.