Harris and Trump Rates at Polymarket Nearly Equal

The odds of Democrat Kamala Harris winning continue to rise on the betting platform Polymarket ahead of the US elections, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of shares even on the last day.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can purchase “shares” in any prediction outcome and earn 1 USDC per share if the outcome occurs. For example, if a Yes share costs $0.60 for an event, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.

Shares in which Harris won the election were traded at 33 cents on October 30, but are now above 44 cents. Shares of Republican Donald Trump fell from 66 cents to 55 cents in the same period.

Bets over $10,000 and $100,000 were above average throughout the weekend. The biggest holders of Trump and Harris “yes” stocks dumped their shares amid high demand, likely reaping a huge profit from the price surge the shares have recorded over the past few months.

The increase in Harris’ odds may be due to investors wanting to hedge their bets, according to CoinDesk’s analysis of trades over $10,000.

Some market watchers say the rise in Harris’ odds reflects hedging positions among traders betting on a victory for her Republican rival, Trump.

Reports of voting irregularities against Trump have rattled social media over the past week, with rumors of voting and fraud significantly impacting market betting. If these allegations are true, the situation will be in favor of the Democrats.

‘Domer’, a well-known political bettor on social media, reported in his X post shared yesterday that Harris has a 55-60% chance of becoming president, taking into account various polls and voter behavior trends.

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The polymarket whale noted that early voting trends show Republicans voting earlier than Democrats, which could mean strategic voting or a change in voter behavior.

However, previous results had not favored Republicans in President Joe Biden’s election, indicating a potential mismatch between current polls and actual voter sentiment or outcome.