Is $64,000 next for BTC or is a crash towards $56,000 more likely?

Since March, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating in a wide range and gradually declining. This move in scope could eventually lead to a long-term bullish trend.

Technical Analysis

By TradingRage

The daily chart

On the daily chart, the price has recently fallen below the 200-day moving average, located around $63,000.

However, the market has recovered from $50,000 and retested the 200-day moving average, but was rejected to the downside.

Currently, the price is likely to try $56,000. If the level holds, the market could rally back towards the 200-day moving average and likely higher, which could lead to the start of a new bull run.

Source: TradingView The 4-hour chart

The 4-hour period demonstrates a possible recovery scenario as the price has quickly rallied from the $52,000 support level after last week’s drop.

However, the market is struggling to break above the $61,000 resistance level at the moment and is creating a bullish flag pattern.

If it breaks to the upside, an upside move towards the $64,000 level would be very likely in the short term. On the other hand, if the pattern fails, things could get worse quickly and the market could drop back down to the $52,000 level.

Source: TradingView On-Chain Analysis

By TradingRage

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve

While Bitcoin’s price action is unconvincing, some fundamental network metrics, due to a considerable decrease in supply, point to a potential price rally in the coming months.

This chart shows the Bitcoin exchange reserve metric and its 30-day moving average. The metric measures the amount of BTC held in exchange wallets. The number of these coins can be considered an indicator of supply, as they are easily held on exchanges and can be sold quickly.

However, as the chart suggests, the foreign exchange reserve metric has been in a sharp decline since early 2024, indicating aggregate investor hoarding behavior. This is a good sign and may lead to a supply shock in the near future, which could lead to an increase in the price of BTC.

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