Is the price of Bitcoin in serious danger? 3 bearish and 2 bullish signs to see BTC

Bitcoin price continued its choppy action in the week ending August 17, even as low consumer inflation signaled an upcoming dollar oversupply and the S&P 500 rallied .

The latest US consumer inflation reading gave the Fed more ammunition to justify a big rate cut in September. This is bullish news for Bitcoin, because more dollars against the same supply of BTC is a recipe for price gains.

Meanwhile, stocks are rising again, closing quickly at their record highs from July. This could indicate that investors are getting their feet back under them after the early August slump. But not so for Bitcoin and other cryptos that remain in correction territory this week.

The prices of Solana, XRP and Polkadot all dropped by double digits this week. Other major cryptos such as Ethereum, BNB, Dogecoin and Cardano were down between 2% and 8% for the week.

So, is the frost of another crypto winter already brewing, or are crypto exchange markets just consolidating ahead of another big bull run to new all-time highs?

Here are some Bitcoin price signals that can help crypto traders answer this question.

3 Bearish Bitcoin Price Signals Bitcoin Price Can’t Break $70,000

The hashrate and network activity of the Bitcoin blockchain continue to show strength, but the orange crypto has not made the same gains on exchanges as it has at this point after halving in previous cycles.

The price of Bitcoin has struggled all year to break the key resistance at the $70,000 level, despite briefly breaking through in March to set an all-time high above $73,000.

More recently, the exchange rate fell below $60,000 as crypto markets lost $80 billion daily.

Exchanges: $1 billion in USDT withdrawals

Meanwhile, in another bearish signal for Bitcoin price and fees for other cryptocurrencies, retail investors have moved massive amounts of stablecoins out of crypto exchanges.

More than $1 billion in USDT was withdrawn from exchanges yesterday, marking the largest Tether outflow since May.

While deposits are often considered bullish, indicating that users are preparing to buy assets, withdrawals can have a more nuanced interpretation.

For example, users can… pic.twitter.com/7LQSeNi9kE

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) August 14, 2024

Blockchain reporting firm In The Block reported on Wednesday that users withdrew more than $1 billion in USDT from exchanges. It was the biggest exit of Tether stablecoin from crypto exchanges since May.

The last two times this happened, it preceded Bitcoin price corrections. However, according to Into The Block, it may not necessarily be a bearish sign. Investors “could be moving funds to participate in DeFi, seeking returns outside of centralized exchanges,” the blockchain firm noted.

Bitcoin price rejects low CPI impression

This week’s CPI print showing the lowest trailing 12-month growth in consumer inflation since 2021 could have been a headwind for Bitcoin’s price. However, against other factors, there simply wasn’t enough support to keep BTC out of the dumps. This looks very bearish for crypto markets.

Based on supply/demand economics and the nature of central bank policy, the low CPI should have enticed Bitcoin bulls. This community watches and understands central bank policy, as well as the Wall Street and bond markets. With inflation cooling quickly and unemployment rising to 4.3% in July, the Federal Reserve looks set to cut interest rates in September.

Economists and investors now expect the US central bank to cut rates for the first time since it began raising rates in March 2022. Chris Larkin of Morgan Stanley E*Trade said:

“The big question now is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points next month. If most data over the next five weeks point to a slowdown in the economy, the Fed may cut more aggressively “.

This news could have given Bitcoin a jolt on crypto exchanges had it not been in such a bearish correction. But for now the bassists are setting the price.

2 Bullish Bitcoin Price Signals

It’s not all bad news this week. The price of Bitcoin can be a value today based on these two signs:

Bitcoin On Exchanges Hits New Low

Investors are moving their Bitcoin off the exchanges.

This is a bullish position and, in past markets, has indicated strong conviction and intent to hold Bitcoin in the hail or the water. According to data from CoinGlass, the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges recently fell to an all-time low.

Over the seven days prior to Thursday, August 15, BTC balance on crypto exchanges fell by -1,406 BTC on Bitstamp, -1,008 BTC on Coinbase Pro, and -501 BTC on Binance. Total Bitcoin on exchange exits was -2,847 for all crypto exchanges tracked by CoinGlass.

Bitcoin technique

Bitcoin technical signals are also bullish for the cryptocurrency in the second half of 2024. The Composite Global Liquidity Momentum (MSI) model seems to have done so last November. This preceded a historic rise in the price of Bitcoin to record levels in March.

The model comes from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at RealVision Finance.

“My Composite Global Liquidity Impulse (MSI) model has provided the first bullish signal since November 2023,” Coutts wrote in a post on X on Thursday. “Remember Bitcoin rallied 75% in November in April before the regime reversed the layoff.”

The central banks capitulate, the spikes of liquidity are opened and #Bitcoin it’s about to go much higher.

My Global Liquidity Impulse (MSI) model has provided the first bullish signal since November 2023. Remember Bitcoin surged 75% from November to… pic.twitter.com/ovF6qSHX8c

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) August 15, 2024

And only time and the markets will tell, but the trend lines around the multi-month lateral channel for Bitcoin are meandering towards forming a (often bullish) wedge pattern. Is it a mirage or the start of something big for Bitcoin price?

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