Kamala Harris favored as debate winner by Polymarket users

Investors on decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket are expecting Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to prevail in polls to be held immediately following the second US presidential debate.

Polymarket investors are betting on crypto and pretty much any issue that has consequences, including whether Elon Musk will join crypto-friendly Donald Trump’s cabinet. While the general prediction is for Trump to win, a majority think post-debate polls favor Harris.

Trump and Harris in the second debate

Polymarket betting currently shows Harris being declared the debate winner at 75%, while betting on former president Donald Trump has fallen from 38% on September 6 to around 25% as of September 9.

The second US presidential debate is expected to air on ABC on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. In the first debate in July, then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden made a disastrous debut. The incumbent US president dropped out of the race a few weeks later, supporting Vice President Kamala Harris.

Both campaigns have expressed confidence in their ability to out-poll the other, but traders at Polymarket believe post-debate polls will show Harris winning against Trump.

How will the bet turn out?

According to Polymarket, if the Ipsos/538 poll shows Kamala Harris as the winner, the betting on who will win the debate will be in favor of the Democratic candidate.

If the poll shows Trump as the winner, the bet will be settled the same way. If the Ipsos/538 poll shows a tie, a 50-50 settlement will occur.

Investors have placed approximately $150,000 bets on the outcome so far.

Polymarket predicts Trump will win the election

Many polls ahead of the debate suggest a tight race in the upcoming elections.

For example, The New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris and Trump neck and neck on the November 4, 2024 ballot. The situation is similar on Polymarket, where investors currently have 52% of their money on Trump, compared to 47% on Harris.

The total bet on who will win in Polymarket is over $844 million.