Kamala Harris odds fall in Polymarket as Donald Trump regains lead

At Polymarket, election punters are once again leaning towards Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, saw her odds drop to 47 percent over the weekend, down from a previous 50/50 chance.

Trump returns to 53% in Polymarket

Trump’s odds of winning the November election had reached 71 percent in July, but dropped to 44 percent in August after President Joe Biden announced he would not run, clearing the way for Harris’ candidacy.

Soon after, Harris’ odds rose to more than 55% in early to mid-August, positioning her as the favorite. However, his support among Polymarket traders has waned in recent weeks, while Trump’s has steadily risen above 50%, putting him back in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds.

Trump’s recent pro-crypto stance contrasts with his 2021 comment, in which he labeled the asset class a “scam.”

In July, the former president delivered a keynote speech at a Nashville Bitcoin conference, where he pledged to support the BTC mining sector despite his criticism of the significant electricity consumption. Trump recently released a new set of NFTs, branded as digital trading cards with phrases like “crypto president.”

Similar previous sales of NFTs have generated millions, although it is unclear how much Trump personally made.

Trump’s strong appeal to crypto investors

A recent FDU poll reveals that Trump’s embrace of crypto in the 2024 US presidential election appears to be paying off. Specifically, he leads Harris by 12 percentage points (50% to 38%) among likely voters who own crypto or related assets.

On the other hand, Harris has a 12-point lead (53% to 41%) among non-crypto-owning voters. The notable preference for Trump among crypto owners is not attributable to other influencing factors, highlighting his effective appeal to this demographic.

Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson and executive director of the survey, said:

“Trump has reached out to the crypto community and it seems to have paid off. It might be easy to dismiss them as insignificant, but I don’t think people realize exactly how crypto ownership is distributed. Historically , Republicans have struggled to reach young people and people of color. Support for cryptocurrencies is very much a wedge issue that could win over voters who are otherwise more like Democrats.”

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