Kamala Harris surges ahead on Polymarket, Trump falters as traders bet big

While Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election have seen a significant increase in Polymarket, Donald Trump’s chances have decreased.

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, decentralized prediction market Polymarket has become a favorite of investors speculating on the outcome.

Looking at the platform’s latest data, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ chance of winning the election increased to 54 percent, while her Republican opponent Donald Trump’s chance dropped from 72 percent to 44 percent.

The shift in market sentiment isn’t just a minor hiccup; it’s backed by significant financial risk. According to Polymarket, there’s currently $66.9 million on the line for a Vice President Harris victory, despite Trump having a larger $75.8 million stake despite his declining odds.

When looking at individual players, one of the most notable bettors in this market is a trader known by the nickname “serus.” The trader holds the largest number of “Yes” shares for Harris, owning a total of 2,427,229 shares, worth around $1.31 million. Serus is currently sitting on an unrealized profit of $374,000.

Harris leads Polymarket as crypto support grows

While the Democratic candidate’s rise has caught the attention of many, the Republican standard-bearer still has a sizeable following on Polymarket, with its biggest supporter, under the pseudonym “50-Pences,” owning 4,376,933 shares.

In the popular vote prediction market, Harris has a 77% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 22% chance, suggesting there is a strong expectation that she will not only win the Electoral College but also a majority in the popular vote.

Harris’s surge in presidential prospects comes on the heels of her campaign’s first virtual session with crypto industry representatives. On August 15, the Crypto4Harris initiative held a virtual meeting attended by figures such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Stabenow, and investor Mark Cuban.

Schumer announced at the event that he plans to push for passage of a bipartisan cryptocurrency bill before the end of the year, a move critics see as a bid to shore up support for the Democratic presidential candidate ahead of the November election.