Macro Agenda Is At The Heart Of Crypto Agenda

Bitcoin closed the week at around $58,000, gaining around 8% in value.

Bitcoin spot ETFs, which had negative daily readings and an outflow of over $700 million in the first week of September, closed last week positively with an inflow of over $400 million.

Friday’s inflow of over $250 million was one of the highest in the last two months.

This week we will pay attention to the interest rate decision and statements coming from the Fed.

CME data showed last week that a 25 basis point rate cut was 70% likely, and a 50 basis point rate cut was 30% likely.

As of the time of writing, a 50 basis point rate cut has become a 61% chance, while a 25 basis point rate cut has become a 39% chance.

We evaluated together last week that the markets were trying to highlight the 50 basis point interest rate expectation with a movement led by large players on the corporate side and that this situation could have an extra positive impact on the markets. This week, we see that this expectation has become even stronger.

I still think the Fed will want to proceed with data-driven and cautious interest rates, and therefore will start with a 25 basis point rate cut. As the FED decision approaches, markets may react negatively to the 25 basis point move as if a rate cut is being made below expectations, or they may argue that a 25 basis point rate cut in line with expectations has created a sell-off equation. We will be following the developments prior to the decision process and the statements following it closely.

Gunshots were heard near where Trump was playing golf last night, bringing to mind the possibility of a new assassination attempt.

While gold continued its upward movement after the news and reached a new record; we witnessed once again that cryptocurrencies in the risky asset class are more sensitive to such news.

While Bitcoin fell from 60,000 to 58,000, it remained stronger than other cryptocurrencies and increased its market dominance to over 58%.

Speaking of Trump; no topic related to digital assets came to the forefront during the Trump and Kamala meeting last week, but this week Trump’s sons’ project, World Liberty Financial, will go live.

It will be a decentralized finance project that works on borrowing and lending on the Ethereum network. It aims to support stable cryptocurrencies tied to the US dollar, helping the US dollar maintain its leadership in the sector. Trump’s strategy, which emphasizes maintaining America’s leading position in the crypto market, is also receiving proactive support from his family members.

Vitalik’s statements this week regarding Layer-2 scaling solutions on Ethereum were important.

He said that he would not consider solutions that fail to achieve decentralization in this area. In recent days, I have come across important developments in the field of decentralization and scaling for Layer-2 solutions.

I will publish a separate article to discuss these in more detail.