Markets Do Not Like Uncertainty – Semih Sercan Erkul

We are leaving behind a week with high volatility in Bitcoin. Although we opened the week with 68 thousand dollars and saw 73 thousand dollars, we are closing it at 68 thousand dollars. The bitcoin price, which is significantly sensitive to the possibility of Trump winning, started the week with record excitement but decreased towards the end of the week. (Let me tell you that Bitcoin broke a new price record in dollar terms on some exchanges with low board depth.) Bitcoin, which closed the active week at horizontal levels, increased its dominance to over 60%, and altcoins experienced losses reaching double digits. This week, we clearly saw that markets do not like uncertainty.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw close to $2 billion in positive inflows this week. Let me say that the total inflows of 870 and 893 million dollars on Tuesday and Wednesday were close to record levels. There is a remarkable volume and money inflow, especially on the BlackRock side. When we look at the week in general; On Friday alone, there was a remarkable outflow of 55 million dollars in total; but I must emphasize that there has been no exit from BlackRock funds. Therefore, entry/exit movements in Spot Bitcoin ETFs with the opening of the markets on Monday may cause the beginning of the week to be volatile.

I’m not touching on spot Ethereum ETFs because there’s been almost no movement, but I can’t help but say that the approximately $50 million positive inflow into the BlacRock fund on Thursday caught my attention.

Let’s come to the elections; There is little time left until the presidential elections in America are concluded. When we looked at the odds on the election betting sites, which were more neck and neck compared to the polls, it showed that Trump was ahead. The fact that Trump, who states that he is a crypto friend, is ahead in the polls has a positive impact on the bitcoin and crypto markets.

This week on Polymarket, one of the largest volume betting sites; While the expectation that Trump would win widened the gap against Harris to 67 to 33, the bitcoin price was about to break its new record. The gap began to close due to allegations of manipulation on betting sites. The image below, used by analyst Miles Deutscher in his tweet, clearly shows the correlation between the increase in Trump’s probability of winning and the increase in the price of bitcoin.

Above: Increase in Trump’s odds of winning

Bottom: Bitcoin price action

Let’s not forget to comment on Ether and altcoins. As bitcoin dominance, which I mentioned at the beginning of the article, increases, all altcoins, especially ether, feel the pressure of bitcoin’s price movement. In markets where uncertainty prevails, there will always be a shift from more risky assets to less risky assets. This works in favor of bitcoin, which has now proven its worth in the cryptocurrency markets and has left its questionable days behind.

In order for a revival to occur in Ether and other altcoin markets, issues such as elections, crises, and geopolitical tensions must be eliminated as much as possible and a predictable environment must be created. We will continue to follow international political and economic developments together, but the election will be the first to be resolved among these uncertainties. It is difficult to predict who will win the election, but I think that the election of the president who has his own NFT series on Ethereum and whose children stepped into the world of decentralized finance by launching projects on Ethereum will be viewed much more positively for ether and other altcoins.

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