Polymarket Bettors Lose $270K After Pavel Durov’s Early Release

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was released on bail yesterday, a decision that came as a surprise to bettors on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, costing them a total of $270,000 in losses.

Durov, who faces formal charges as of yesterday, agreed not to leave the country by paying bail of 5 million euros ($5.6 million). Durov will report twice a week.

The speedy release contradicted punters’ views that a lengthy detention was more likely. Under contracts, Durov’s chances of being released in August were priced at around 30%, while the odds of him being released before October were priced at 75%-90%. The odds of the CEO being released in August rose to 50% just before French authorities announced Durov had been released on bail.

A user named Champ became the biggest winner of both contracts, investing in a contract that would see Durov released in August, as well as a contract that would see him released before October.

Champ earned $26,138 from the two contracts, for a total of $56,638.

The contract taking bets on Durov to flee France by mid-September is currently hovering around 6%, meaning punters think Durov will comply with his bail conditions.

Although the legal difficulties experienced by the CEO are an important part of the crypto community’s agenda, the situation may change after what Donald Trump will say in his speech today.

Bettors value the probability of Trump mentioning Durov at only 14%, while the probability of the MAGA token being mentioned is 92%.