Polymarket French whale ‘Theo4’ nets $21m off Trump win

One of Polymarket’s biggest spenders nearly doubled its pot on Donald Trump’s election victory this week.

Polymarket whale “Theo4” earned $21.9 million in profits from bets on four Trump-focused markets on the Polygon-based prediction platform, including Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris.

The user rightly predicted that Trump would also win the popular vote; This was a result that contradicted previous results. While Trump won the electoral college in 2016, he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in 2020.

Theo4 first made headlines after a New York Times report suggested a Polymarket whale might be manipulating public perception and inflating Trump’s chances. The user, a professional French investor and trader, denied the claim, attributing his strategy to personal bias and a data-driven approach.

Theo4 argued that national polls were skewed in favor of Harris and believed many people were underestimating Trump votes.

Polymarket’s largest selection contract was also Theo4’s largest investment. “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” The titled market generated over $3 billion in volume, with the French user spending approximately $9 million on the shares, and the transaction was settled on November 6.

Prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi were seemingly vindicated when Trump was declared president-elect of the United States.

These platforms, which allow users to bet on event outcomes, grew in popularity as the election approached earlier this year. But they have faced criticism from skeptics and regulators for allegedly encouraging election gambling.

Rumors of political bias also circulated, with legacy media outlets claiming their prediction platforms were highly partisan. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan dismissed the allegations as unfounded and argued that his company was nothing more than a data source.

Don’t get me wrong, first of all, Polymarket called for an election on its own. The global truth machine is here, drawing its power from the people.

Shayne Coplan in X

Polymarket proved the wisdom of the markets last night against polls, media and experts.

Polymarket consistently and accurately predicts outcomes beyond all three, demonstrating the power of the high-volume, highly liquid prediction markets it pioneers…

— Polimarket (@Polymarket) 6 November 2024