Polymarket shows rising odds of Trump nominating Musk to cabinet

The odds of Donald Trump winning the November elections and nominating Elon Musk to his cabinet have increased on Polymarket.

A Polymarket poll with assets of over $803 million shows Donald Trump has a 53% chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 46%. Harris had been leading Trump for some time as interest in her campaign surged in August.

Another Polymarket poll with $77,000 in assets predicted Trump would win and nominate Elon Musk to his cabinet. Those odds rose to 18% on Sept. 5 from 12% the day before. The poll would be considered accurate if Trump wins and appoints Musk to one of the 15 executive departments or a cabinet-level role.

Trump likely to nominate Elon Musk for cabinet | Source: Polymarket

Advisory roles will not count as cabinet-level appointments, according to the survey’s authors.

Those possibilities have increased after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering Musk to lead a government efficiency commission, which would examine the federal government to identify waste, reduce fraud and prevent improper payments.

Elon Musk has been an outspoken supporter of Trump and has donated to his campaign. While the two billionaires differ on some policies, they are in agreement on key issues such as regulation and immigration.

Musk has been open to taking on some form of government role, but it is unclear whether he would agree to leave his many federally regulated ventures, such as SpaceX, Tesla and X.

Trump and Musk themed tokens mixed

Donald Trump and Elon Musk-themed tokens were mixed following the WSJ report. Elon (ELON), a token valued at over $2.7 million, rose 9.4%, while MAGA Hat (MAGA) gained 2.3%. MAGA (TRUMP), the largest Trump-themed token, is down over 17.5% in the past seven days.

On the stock market, Tesla shares jumped more than 4.8%, extending a recent rally that has lifted its market value to more than $733 billion. Trump Media & Technology stock was little changed, having fallen more than 36% in the past month.

Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies also remained quiet following the report, with BTC remaining below $57,000 while Ethereum (ETH) fell below $2,400. Trump is seen as a more suitable candidate for the sector.

But historically, cryptocurrencies have thrived no matter who is in the White House. Bitcoin hit records of $1,166 under Barack Obama, $35,000 under Trump, and $73,800 under Biden.

Kamala Harris leads in most polls

It is still unclear whether Donald Trump will win the election, especially because of independent voters.

Recent mainstream polls have shown mixed signals, with Harris leading Trump by six points in the Outward Intelligence poll, four points in the Emerson College poll, and two points in the YouGov poll.

Harris also leads in fundraising, raising $300 million in August compared to Trump’s $130 million. That funding suggests she is still gaining momentum two months before the election.