Polymarket taps Nate Silver as advisor ahead of US election

Polymarket, a leading name in the blockchain-based prediction market, has appointed renowned statistician Nate Silver as an advisor.

The appointment is indicative of the rapid rise of Polymarket, which currently accounts for 80% of US election betting.

Silver is also a writer and journalist whose goal is to help Polymarket create forecasts around news events.

“I grew up following Nate’s work in election forecasting, and welcoming him to Polymarket’s advisory board is a dream come true,” said Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket. “Nate has played a key role in bringing political forecasting into the mainstream throughout his career. Polymarket has become the go-to destination for election forecasting this election season, and Nate’s guidance will be critical to taking our offering to the next level.”

Axios was the first to report the news on Tuesday.

Very market

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket allows users to bet on a variety of outcomes, with a particular focus on the US presidential election. The platform has seen more than $262 million wagered on the 2024 presidential race, with users currently favoring former President Donald Trump.

Despite its success, Polymarket is not accessible to U.S. users due to Commodity Futures Trading Commission restrictions. The company conducts all of its operations internationally and is currently considering offering a regulated product in the U.S. Polymarket has overseen more than $400 million in transactions so far this year and was a major activity during the first presidential debate.

Trump’s popularity on Polymarket has risen to over 70% following a recent assassination attempt, a figure he frequently highlights on Truth Social.

Backed by $70 million in venture capital from investors like Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, Polymarket is thriving in the prediction market.

Who is Nate Silver?

Silver, known for his accurate 2008 election predictions at FiveThirtyEight, believes prediction markets will become important tools for investors to evaluate news and predict future outcomes.

He emphasizes the importance of probabilities in decision-making, citing the ongoing debate within the Democratic Party over President Joe Biden’s reelection bid. While advising Polymarket, Silver will also continue work on his Substack newsletter and a new book project.